After some hesitation in its communication, on the evening of Thursday, November 28, the government finally confirmed that it intends to increase taxation on the regulated tariff for the sale of electricity from 1is February 2025, compared to that applied in 2024.
Enough to mitigate the drop in bills which is nevertheless expected, due to a drop in electricity prices on the wholesale market. “I have decided not to increase taxes on electricity in the 2025 finance bill”nevertheless affirmed the Prime Minister, Michel Barnier, in the afternoon, during a long interview at the Figaro.
If the scenario transmitted by Matignon on Thursday evening is confirmed, taxation will increase from one year to the next, which was already planned by the previous executive. But it will not increase as much as the current Barnier government had envisaged in October, when presenting its finance bill for 2025; which could now explain the Prime Minister's equivocal sentence.
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According to Matignon's plan, taxes will amount to 37.20 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) next year – excluding VAT on consumption. That is a jump of almost 54% compared to today's level, which is 24.16 euros.
The end of the “tariff shield”
Among the tax components, the main development is that of the former domestic tax on final electricity consumption (TICFE), now called the fraction collected on electricity. To justify this increase, the government highlights the end of the “tariff shield”.
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In 2022, faced with the inflationary energy crisis, this aid system reduced the TICFE to 1 euro for individuals. At the start of 2024, this excise (an indirect tax) had increased to 21 euros. It was then already planned to return it, by 2025, to its level before the inflationary crisis. Or around 32 euros, if we include old municipal and departmental taxes.
According to the scenario provided on Thursday, this fraction collected on electricity will ultimately be 29.98 euros next February – assuming that the VAT rate on the subscription to a contract increases from 5.5% to 20 %, to comply with European law.
In October, when presenting its finance bill for 2025, the executive first considered a flexible sum of up to 50 euros for the ex-TICFE. The measure would have allowed at least 3 billion euros in additional tax revenue for the State, compared to an excise of 32 euros. Very unpopular, it was the subject of an unfavorable vote in the National Assembly and the Senate – which does not prevent the possibility, for the Prime Minister, of imposing it without a vote by recourse to article 49.3 of the Constitution.
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