Will Michel Barnier have to leave Matignon next week, three months almost to the day after his appointment? Tension is rising crescendo between Parliament and the government, while the draft Social Security budget will return to the National Assembly on Monday, December 2.
Despite the tensions within the presidential coalition, a compromise between senators and deputies was finally found, Wednesday evening, November 27, within the joint committee, behind closed doors in which this coalition has a narrow majority.
But, deprived of a majority in the Chamber, the Prime Minister is condemned to resort for the first time, Monday, to article 49.3 of the Constitution to have it adopted without a vote. By taking responsibility, the head of government opens the way to a motion of censure, promised by the left.
Read also | Article reserved for our subscribers Michel Barnier faced with the growing threat of censorship of the RN in the National Assembly
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Marine Le Pen maintains suspense over her intentions during this first motion of censure, which could be examined on December 4. But, without waiting for the home stretch of the state budget, around December 18, 19 or 20, the president of the National Rally (RN) group in the National Assembly could decide to add to the votes of the left those of its deputies, which would lead to the fall of the government.
If nothing filtered out of the exchange, Monday, in Matignon between the head of the RN and the Prime Minister, the latter took a step in the direction of Marine Le Pen the next day. While the member for Pas-de-Calais judges « inadmissible » the increase in taxes on electricity planned in the draft budget, Michel Barnier does not rule out “do more to preserve the purchasing power of the French”he said Tuesday evening.
The government increases pressure on the PS
The former Brexit negotiator also announced a mission led by political scientist Pascal Perrineau on proportional voting, again responding to a demand from the RN. Nothing that will move the leaders of the far-right party at this stage. The slightest thing they say is scrutinized by the elected representatives of the “common base”. “They say they are going to censor, but there is always a little comma lying around, a codicil”observes, resolutely optimistic, the president of the Macronist group in the Senate, François Patriat.
The far right is not alone in holding the key to the outcome of the final vote. The government spokesperson, Maud Bregeon, pointed out on Wednesday, “unbelievable responsibility” of the Socialists (PS) if the left tabled a motion of censure. The abstention of the sixty-six PS and related deputies would save the budget. The government therefore increased the pressure, warning them: by voting for this motion, they would plunge the country further into political instability and economic stagnation.
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