Rodgers’ European revival – Celtic are defying the odds to keep Champions League dream alive

20th after five games

Celtic kept their Champions League dreams alive on Wednesday evening, with a hard-fought 1-1 draw against Club Brugge. Against a tricky foe that had recently beaten Premier League giants Aston Villa, the Scottish Premiership champions came from behind to claim a point thanks to a second half goal from Daizen Maeda. The result now means that Celtic have lost just one of their first five games in the revamped group stage, with Dinamo Zagreb, Young Boys and the aforementioned English club still to play.

While Celtic pushed for a win in front of their own fans, a point still puts them in a strong position to challenge for the next stage of the Champions League. With eight points from their first five games, Brendan Rodgers’ side sit twentieth in the group, comfortably within the positions that would see them go through to the play-off round and a chance of qualifying for the Last 16. Should they suceed in getting out of the group, it will be the first time in 12 years that the Scottish club have reached the knock-out stages of the Champions League.  And while the new format may make comparisons to previous campaigns difficult, there’s little doubt that Celtic’s performances in this season’s tournament have been a step above their normal showing on the continental.

Rodgers enjoys improved Champions League record

The graphic above shows Rodgers’s points-per-game record in the Champions League across multiple seasons with Liverpool and Celtic. And as we can see, the Northern Irish manager has had a number of highs and lows in the tournament. During the 2014/15 season with Liverpool, Rodgers recorded a points-per-game average of 0.83, a performance that indicated struggles in a competitive group stage. Upon moving to Celtic, his results were even less impressive in the 2016/17 and 2017/18 seasons, both yielding a points-per-game average of just 0.50. These seasons demonstrated the difficulty of competing at the Champions League level for the Scottish giants, who were often constrained by financial disparities compared to Europe’s elite clubs. But also underlined a somewhat naive approach to the competition from Rodgers. The 2023/24 season saw a modest improvement, with a points-per-game average of 0.67, signaling some progress under Rodgers’ guidance. However, the significant leap has come in this current campaign, where Celtic have so far recorded a notable 1.6 points per game.

While the new format could be the leading cause for Celtic’s improved performances in this season’s tournament, it’s worth bearing in mind who the Scottish side have faced thus far. In Slovan Bratislava, Borussia Dortmund, Atalanta, RB Leipzig and Club Brugge, Celtic have only faced one club with a smaller overall squad market value than their own. In fact, the club’s squad value of €124.4 million is the eighth lowest in the competition, which suggests that Rodgers’ team are eight places higher than the relative strength of their team would initially suggest. And, undoubtedly, how remarkable an achievement it would be if Rodgers were to guide Celtic out of the group and within touching distance of the Last 16.