Faced with censorship which could arrive faster than expected, Michel Barnier raises the threat of chaos

The more the days progress, the more Michel Barnier's isolation influences his speech. After quiet strength, there is room for catastrophism. Invited to speak on the set of 8 p.m. on TF1, on the evening of Tuesday, November 26, the Prime Minister continued to be in reaction to the stabbings carried out by his “allies”, to the threats brandished by his opponents and the lack of confidence displayed by his superior.

All this while the prospect of censorship of his government becomes clearer as the debates on the State budgets (PLF) and Social Security (PLFSS) for 2025 progress. Next deadline in date: the examination of the PLFSS by the joint committee (CMP), which is scheduled for this Wednesday, November 27, at 2 p.m., and which could speed things up. “Why do you want me to resign?” »launched the tenant (more ephemeral than expected?) of Matignon, questioned by Gilles Bouleau, presenter of TF1, not hesitating to play the card of “it's me or chaos”. If the government falls, “there will be a probably quite serious storm and serious turbulence in the financial markets”he prophesied.

A recourse to article 49.3 on the vote of the budget

While she had not hesitated to endorse the Prime Minister to prevent the left from accessing Matignon, the leader of the deputies of the National Rally (RN), Marine le Pen, no longer hesitates to brandish the threat of a favorable vote from his group, if ever the New Popular Front (NFP) takes advantage of recourse to article 49.3 on the budget to bring down the Barnier government. Which could happen as early as next week if the CMP this Wednesday afternoon on the PLFSS was conclusive. After her meeting on Monday with the head of the executive, the former far-right candidate for the presidency of the Republic thus estimated that the Prime Minister remains “camped” on its positions.

Enough to push Michel Barnier to publicly return to the planned increase in the electricity tax, a red line decreed by the RN, always quick to give itself the image of a party that listens to the French. “We will see if we can do more to preserve [leur] purchasing power »announced the Prime Minister. Above all, he multiplied the signals aimed at the extreme right by evoking “the subjects on which (he) wants to act (…) : the daily security of the French, the control of immigration and the ban on illegal immigration, on work which must pay more than benefits, with a single social allowance, on democracy and perhaps the project that wish a lot of parties about proportional representation for example”.

Until now discreet on the national political situation, as well as on Michel Barnier's strategy, Emmanuel Macron is not, according to information from Parisianhardly any more illusions about the lifespan of the government. The Head of State is said to have proclaimed to relatives, during the ceremony in honor of Élisabeth Borne, to whom the medal of Commander of the Legion of Honor was awarded, that the “government will fall (…) and sooner than you think ». The Élysée immediately denied these comments reported in an article published by the daily, this Tuesday, November 26.

A “common base” which does not only have allies

Michel Barnier can no longer count on clear support from the “common base” (LR, Horizons, Modem and Ensemble pour la République), whose headliners do not hesitate to bare their fangs. Laurent Wauquiez, president of the Republican Right group in the National Assembly, announced, a few hours before Michel Barnier's appearance on TF1, that his group and the LR senators will waive a contribution to make all active workers work without pay for seven hours more per year.

The one who dreams of representing the right in the 2027 presidential election has thus given priority to the former European commissioner. A habit for Laurent Wauquiez, who had already announced the revaluation of pensions by half the inflation, on January 1, 2025, live during 8 p.m. on TF1.

On the same stage, Michel Barnier did not hesitate to castigate the “maneuvers” and the “little sentences”. An attack which targets Laurent Wauquiez as much as his predecessor, Gabriel Attal, president of the Ensemble pour la République (EPR) group in the hemicycle. “Tossing a coin with the future of the country is not up to the task of responsibility”believes the former Prime Minister.

A very narrow majority

As a reminder, seven deputies and seven senators will try to reach a compromise on the 2025 social security budget. A text which could lead to 49.3 so feared by the executive. In the closed session of an Assembly room, parliamentarians will therefore work, at the beginning of the afternoon, on the senatorial copy of this financing bill. Problem is, the government coalition only has a very narrow majority (eight votes to six). The government must convince the deputies of its own camp, those of EPR, not to oppose an increase in employer contributions.

Difficult project, while many Macronists believe that “deviating from the pro-business line pursued since 2017 would be a fundamental error”as stated, in an interview with ParisianAntoine Armand… Minister of the Economy in the Barnier government. A sign of tension, a first meeting organized this Tuesday, November 26, of the Macronist group to decide on the vote in the joint committee was not enough. “ We were more like 60/40 for » vote for the CMP, says a deputy. The group will therefore decide on its position at the last moment.

“We’re going to play the game”for his part announced the socialist deputy Jérôme Guedj, regarding the upcoming debates. The risk of France being blocked by the absence of a budget is, in fact, exaggerated. “There is no risk of [parvenir] to a situation in which civil servants are not paid or public services no longer functionrecalled the political coordinator of France Insoumise (LFI), Manuel Bompard, at the microphone of France Inter, this Tuesday, November 26. This is a pure and simple lie: the parliamentary calendar perfectly allows, in this case, to discuss and put in place another budget. » What is certain is that Michel Barnier largely plays his role there, while the government could fall in the coming weeks.