No more retirement and unemployment benefits, no more vital cards, country at a standstill… Is this really what would happen if the Barnier government is censored as predicted by Elisabeth Borne?

On the set of What era on France 2this Tuesday, November 26, former Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne was concerned about the situation in France with the threat of a motion of censure against the Barnier government with the vote on the next budget which would plunge France into a situation of “shutdown”bringing the country to a standstill.

“All those who want to vote for censorship on these texts must bear in mind the consequences that it would have for the French. And the French must know this too,” declared the Calvados MP, before giving more concrete examples: “If the Social Security budget was censored, that would mean that on January 1, your health card would no longer work. That would mean that pensions would no longer be paid. That would mean after a while that civil servants are no longer paid.

Social Security, paralyzed?

The social security financing bill (PLFSS) for 2025 is the budget with the highest risks, while the National Assembly is divided into three blocks and the government wants more than 60 billion in savings. The latter could therefore seek to have the budget adopted without a vote, by incurring responsibility through article 49, paragraph 3 known as “49-3” of the Constitution and at the risk of triggering a motion of censure. If the latter is passed, the government will be overthrown and the budget rejected. As a result, a new government would be formed and “would deal with current affairs”, as lawyer Benjamin Moral explains to Le Monde. A “shutdown”in the French way, therefore.

However, not to the point of paralyzing the country, as the former Prime Minister mentions. If the text “is not adopted before the end of the year, contributions will still be due”, explains Bertrand-Léo Combrade, professor of constitutional law at the University of Poitiers with TF1. “Doctors will be able to continue to operate Vitale cards and mutual insurance. There will be no blockage, social security will continue to operate.”

Something confirmed by Maud Bregeon, the government spokesperson. “The Vitale card will continue to work”, she declared this Wednesday, November 27 to FranceInfo.

A more tense context for pensions

The questions of the payment of pensions and salaries of civil servants are provided for by the bill and finances (PLF), the one which crystallizes the most tensions within the National Assembly, which must re-examine it by December 18. In the event of no agreement on the latter, the government can absolutely have the budget voted on by ordinance if it “did not make a decision within seventy days”as provided for in article 47 of the Constitution. But what happens if Parliament decides against the budget with a motion of no confidence?

“If Parliament says no, and the government acts by order, the orders will be contrary to the Constitution. They will be canceled by the administrative judge.” A situation which is not provided for by the Constitution and in fact never occurred under the Fifth Republic, the lawyer clarified.

Return to the 2024 budget?

If the budget vote does not pass, France would not find itself without a budget. Article 45 of the organic law relating to finance laws (LOLF) provides “a special law authorizing the executive to collect existing taxes until the vote on the finance law of the year”which should lead to a new vote discussed urgently, and makes it possible to develop a budget similar to that of last year, thus avoiding any situation of shutdown, as Marine Le Pen (RN) also argued, who considers that “if this budget does not pass, it is last year's budget which will apply and it is rather less bad than this one since there are fewer taxes which will weigh on the working classes and the middle classes.

However, if such a thing were to happen, “it will be very temporary”, said Bertrand-Léo Combrade. Indeed, it is possible to come back on this by voting on amending finance bills (PLFR) more in line with the economic situation. But these are limited.

“The country risks dropping out” and would take years to recover

On the other hand, Maud Bregeon fears that if the 2025 budget is rejected and the government is overthrown, this will create a situation of strong tensions, the consequences of which would be “a drastic increase in the debt burden”but also a “impossibility for the government to take advantage”. Which would lead to an increase in rates for companies which could put some in difficulty, with: “a loss of consumer confidence, fewer investors, the slowdown in French investments, fewer creations and therefore fewer jobs”, by ricochet effect, she warned.

The country risks dropping out and would take years to recover.”she continues again, asking “those who decide to put France in this situation” from “assume the consequences”.