will “pensions really no longer be paid” in the event of a motion of censure?

Wednesday 27th November 2024 04:29 AM

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– If Michel Barnier's government decides to use 49.3, deputies will have the possibility of tabling and voting on a motion of censure against it.

And “the Social Security budget was to be censored, this would mean that on January 1st, your Vitale card no longer works, that pensions are no longer paid», Warned former Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne. The predecessor of Michel Barnier, who had the 2024 budget approved thanks to article 49.3 – a constitutional mechanism allowing a text to be adopted without a vote by deputies – warns of the risks linked to a motion of censure. On the left, the deputies reaffirmed their desire to sanction the government if Michel Barnier were also to use article 49.3 to have the 2025 budget adopted. “We are ready to propose, at any time, a new budget”declared Mathilde Panot, leader of the LFI group (La France insoumise) in the National Assembly, after her meeting with the Prime Minister.

Monday, November 25, while the finance bill (PLF) entered the Senate, Michel Barnier met, in turn, the opposition leaders. The head of government seeks to convince deputies not to vote censorship in the event of recourse to 49.3. As for the RN (National Rally), it still maintains the suspense. Faced with these threats, the government is toughening its tone. “Without a budget, we take the risk of a Greek scenario”declared Maud Bregeon, spokesperson for the executive, in an interview with Parisian November 23rd. “Without waving the rag of fear, who wants to offer the French as a Christmas present for 2025 a deficit of more than 7% and interest rates that are soaring?”she added.

The partial bill or special bill to the rescue of the 2025 budget

For Marine Le Pen (RN), it is about “fake news”she defended in a column published in Le Figaro on November 26, claiming that he “There is no risk of “shutdown” in our institutions, contrary to what some members of the government assert (…). “Even in the event of censorship, taxes would be lifted, civil servants paid, pensions paid, and medical care reimbursed”she continued. On the left, Eric Coquerel, president of the finance committee of the National Assembly, shares this analysis: even with a motion of censure, there will be no “no shutdown, no chaos, no disaster”. But then, what are the real risks of a motion of censure in the middle of examining the budget?

The draft finance law (PLF) must be published in the Official Journal (JO) no later than December 31, 2024. However, “to ensure that this deadline is respected, the law provides for emergency procedures”explains Stéphanie Damarey, professor of public financial law, who lists three:

The first emergency procedure is triggered from December 11in accordance with article 45 of the organic law relating to finance laws. In this case, the government can ask Parliament to “pronounce on the first part of the finance law”which concerns revenue. This then takes the form of a “partial bill”. “The second part, relating to expenditure, can be adopted later, in January or even February”specifies the expert.
The second emergency procedure concerns the “special bill”which the government must table before December 19. This text authorizes the executive to “continue to collect existing taxes”. “This law must then be adopted by Parliament. We can assume that elected officials will be keen to ensure the continuity of national life since, in this case, there is no question of distribution of revenue or expenditure.continues Stéphanie Damarey. On this subject, the RN promised that in the event of censorship, it would vote for this “special law” if the government decided to use it. This procedure has already been used in the history of the Fifth Republic, recalls the expert: “In 1979, the finance law for 1980 was censored by the Constitutional Council. The government then tabled a special bill in order to continue collecting the tax. Examination of the rest of the text had been postponed until later.” A similar situation had also occurred in 1962, when the following year's budget “was not finally adopted until February 23, 1963”.
A third emergency procedure is provided for by law : it is about “the possibility for the government to have its finance bill adopted in whole or in part by prescription». Never practiced under the Fifth Republic, this option “prevents the government from opposing parliamentarians and having recourse to article 49.3”. “On the other hand, this implies that you have to wait until the end of the procedure to use the orders”specifies Stéphanie Damarey. Like the two previous options, the system can be used alone or in addition to the famous article 49.3, or even after a possible motion of censure. Guillaume Tusseau, constitutionalist and political scientist, questions : “Can a resigning government table a partial or special law or act by ordinance? Is this business as usual?”. For Stéphanie Damarey, no doubt: “The fact that the government has resigned does not remove the possibility of acting from the moment when the year cannot begin without authorization to continue to collect taxes.”