“There is no risk of “shutdown” in our institutions. […] contrary to what certain members of the government assert in unison,” said Marine Le Pen in a column published in the columns of Figaro this Tuesday. The president of the National Rally group in the National Assembly criticized the executive for presenting a particularly apocalyptic scenario in the event of government censorship and non-adoption of the 2025 budget.
A scenario in which civil servants would not be paid and public services blocked. This anger from the figure of the extreme right is in particular a response to the comments of the government spokesperson, Maud Bregeon, who was worried on Sunday about a “Greek scenario” in which civil servants would no longer receive their pay.
FAKE OFF
“There is a 99% chance that this scenario is impossible,” reacts Michel Lascombe, who assures that it is a “worst case scenario”. The constitutional expert and lecturer in public law unfolds several possible scenarios: “if the 70-day deadline, allotted to parliament by article 47 of the Constitution, is exceeded, the government can pass its budget by ordinance. » In this case, parliamentarians can then decide to overthrow the government but the budget will have already been voted on.
Another possibility: the government could decide to go through with force by drawing out article 49.3 of the Constitution, probably one of the best known to the French. It allows the executive to hold the government accountable for a financial text. In this case, the budget would be adopted, unless the National Assembly decides to overthrow the government through a motion of censure, tabled within 24 hours. “But for that, an absolute majority would have to be reached. The alliance of the National Rally and Eric Ciotti fails to reach 289 deputies [la majorité nécessaire]we should add the New Popular Front. But without the socialists, it would be insufficient, unless the independent Liot group joins this initiative”, deciphers Michel Lascombe for whom this reversal remains “uncertain”.
Full powers to Macron
If, however, the National Assembly manages to overthrow Michel Barnier in response to 49.3, the deposed Prime Minister will continue to carry out current affairs and France will not automatically find itself in a state of “shutdown”. For this to happen, all these conditions would have to be met but, in addition, “the special law authorizing the collection of revenues be rejected by the National Assembly”, says the constitutionalist. However, by rejecting this special law, parliamentarians know full well that they are blocking the State. And even if they decided to be “irresponsible,” the government would still have an ace up its sleeve.
Because Emmanuel Macron, relieved of his overthrown Prime Minister, could well rely on “article 16 of the Constitution, which gives all powers to the President of the Republic” when “the institutions of the Republic, the independence of the Nation, the integrity of its territory or the execution of its international commitments are threatened.” In the context of a “shutdown” with public services stopped and civil servants unpaid, the case of force majeure seems obvious. And the president would very probably be entitled to use this article, in order to “restore the regular functioning of the State”.
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