In kyiv, there is talk of the “alliance of the bold”, a grouping of five to seven European countries in favor of deploying troops on Ukrainian soil. Publicly supported by France since February and mentioned again by Emmanuel Macron in June, on the sidelines of the celebration of the 80th anniversary of the Landing, this project seems on the verge of coming to fruition.
A perspective imposed by circumstances
Two circumstances explain this acceleration. The first is the new context of the war in Ukraine. On the ground, kyiv is struggling more and more to contain the Russian offensive. The arrival of 10,000 North Korean soldiers, the use of a ballistic weapon by Moscow and the repeated threats from Vladimir Putin against the countries which deliver missiles to Ukraine are pushing its most committed allies to strengthen their support in order to to avoid a Russian victory. The second circumstance is the imminent arrival of Donald Trump at the White House and the threat it poses to the sustainability of American support for kyiv.
To consider deploying troops in Ukraine, Paris needed a strong ally in Europe. France first tried to convince German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, without success. Paris turned to London and its new Prime Minister, Keir Starmer. Faced with the evolving situation, the only two European nuclear powers have become considerably closer in recent days.
Franco-British rapprochement
Thus, on November 11, a few days after the election of Donald Trump, Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer together celebrated the 106th anniversary of the armistice of 1918, a symbolic gesture not seen since 1944. They also celebrated the 120th anniversary of the 'Entente cordiale, signed in 1904. On this occasion, the Élysée reaffirmed the Franco-British determination to support kyiv «unwaveringly and for as long as necessary». Michel Barnier added on X (ex-Twitter): “Franco-British friendship, forged through hardship, will be valuable in meeting the challenges to come. »
Then the Minister of Foreign Affairs Jean-Noël Barrot went to London on November 22 to meet his counterpart, David Lammy. The opportunity to declare during his visit not to exclude anything concerning a deployment of French troops. The day before, the two men even signed a column in Le Figarocalling to fight against « poutinisation » of the world. They state: “France and the United Kingdom will not let Putin get his way. Together with our allies, we will mobilize all necessary efforts to place Ukraine in the best possible position to achieve a just and lasting peace. »
Train the troops, secure the future peace agreement
According to our information, if the two countries seriously consider sending ground troops, these forces would not be intended to participate in combat, but rather to carry out training, logistical support and intelligence missions. Paris has already been training a Ukrainian brigade since the beginning of September, in eastern France. It would be a question of doing the same thing, but in Ukraine: which would require it to send not only instructors, but also soldiers to ensure their protection, knowing that the Ukrainian brigade trained in France mobilizes no less than 1,500 military.
This deployment of troops would also be one of the security guarantees that Ukraine would demand in the future peace agreement with Russia. Allied forces would be deployed on its side to defend it against a new Russian offensive. A prospect actually envisaged by the French army, as confided by the Chief of Staff of the Army, General Schill, during a meeting with the press in Paris on September 21.
If the Franco-British couple is the driving force behind the “alliance of the bold”, the Baltic countries would also be involved, we learned from the Ukrainian side. But not Poland, due to tense diplomatic relations between Warsaw and kyiv in recent months.
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