Is PSG's qualification really in danger if they do not win against Bayern Munich? The Parisians face Vincent Kompany's men in Munich this Tuesday, November 26 in a match which could already be decisive for the future of the capital club in the Champions League. Currently 25th in the ranking with only 4 points, Paris Saint-Germain is virtually eliminated from the competition.
This 2024-2025 season has indeed marked a change in the format of the C1. There are now no more group stages, but a single group made up of the 36 qualified teams. In this “league”, not all teams meet. Each club has eight matches to play against eight different teams, with four matches at home and four away.
At the end of this first phase which ends on January 29 with a multiplex of 18 matches, the first eight teams in the ranking are directly qualified for the round of 16. The clubs placed 9th to 24th go through play-offs, a sort of round of 16. For others, from 25th to 36th place, it is direct elimination without the possibility of being drafted.
The objective of 9 points to qualify
Direct qualification for the round of 16 seems far away for PSG. According to an estimate from Opta, to enter the top 8 at the end of the first phase of the competition, a club has a 98% chance of achieving it with 16 points and 73% with 15 points. To enter this scenario, with only 4 points, the capital club must win at least 11 points.
PSG is therefore obliged to win its last four matches. An arduous task which seems almost impossible in view of its future opponents, Bayern and Manchester City in particular, and especially its lack of efficiency in the penalty area since the start of the competition, only 3 goals scored in 4 matches. PSG is the least effective team in C1 with Stuttgart.
On the other hand, the top 24, and therefore qualification for the play-offs, is still largely achievable for Luis Enrique's men. Still according to Opta estimates, a team with 10 points has a 99% chance of placing in the top 24. This means that Brest and Monaco, who both have 10 points, are almost guaranteed to qualify for the rest of the competition.
Furthermore, with 9 points, clubs have a 69% chance of reaching the play-offs. The objective for PSG is therefore clear: to have at least 9 points. To do this, he must at least win one match and draw two matches. A feasible operation as PSG will face RB Salzburg and Stuttgart in particular, two teams well within the reach of the Parisian club, but its lack of efficiency could play a bad role on it.
What happens if you lose to Bayern?
In the event that PSG loses against Bayern, the capital club will still remain in the non-qualifying places with only 4 points and the danger of elimination will come closer and closer. With 3 games remaining, the Parisians could still win a maximum of 9 points. With these 13 hypothetical points, PSG would win their ticket for the play-offs.
If two victories against RB Salzburg, currently 30th with 3 points, and Stuttgart, currently 27th with 4 points, are entirely possible, winning against Manchester City at home on January 22 is less obvious. In the last confrontations in the Champions League between the two clubs, advantage for the Mancunian team with 4 victories against only one for PSG. Parisian players will be able to count on the support of their supporters. The last confrontation at the Parc was successful for them with a 2-0 victory during the group stage during the 2021/2022 season.
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