The President of the National Assembly puts into perspective the consequences for France and its finances of a possible departure of the Prime Minister in the event of the adoption of a motion of censure. Yaël Braun-Pivet is much more worried about a risk of “political instability”.
Bring the pressure down. After the first consultations carried out by Michel Barnier this Monday, November 25 to avoid a motion of censure which would overthrow him, the President of the Assembly Yaël Braun-Pivet tries to trivialize the situation.
“If the motion of censure is passed, there will be no catastrophe announced, no American shutdown (when the State is financially incapacitated due to lack of political agreement, editor's note). We have the mechanisms to cope,” said defended the tenant of Le Perchoir this Tuesday on Sud radio.
Braun-Pivet far from the catastrophist tone of Retailleau
The boss of the Palais-Bourbon is clearly distancing herself from several members of the government, starting with the Minister of the Interior Bruno Retailleau who says he fears that government censorship would “push France into the abyss”.
Michel Barnier should draw 49.3 on December 18 when the 2025 budget returns to the Assembly. This institutional cartridge has the advantage of allowing the finance bill to be adopted without a vote but allows oppositions to file a motion of censure.
She is currently supported by Marine Le Pen and the entire New Popular Front, far more than the 289 votes needed. Consequence: the Prime Minister could be overthrown.
Bruno Retailleau's concern about the fall of the government is also shared by Maud Bregeon. In the columns of Le Parisien this Sunday, the government spokesperson brandished the threat of a “Greek scenario” in the event of the overthrow of Michel Barnier.
The worry of “political instability”
The situation between Greece in 2008 and France in 2024, however, has nothing to do with it, from the amount of the Greek deficit to the difficulties in raising taxes for the Athenian government, including the European context.
More than the rejection of the budget itself which could be put into force by orders as permitted by the Constitution, it is rather the political consequences of the departure of Michel Barnier which worries Yaël Braun-Pivet.
“The vote on a motion of censure would generate political instability which must worry everyone,” judges the President of the National Assembly.
In this scenario, Emmanuel Macron would have several cards on the table: he could for example reappoint Michel Barnier following his resignation – a possible option from a constitutional point of view but politically delicate.
The head of state could still open a new round of consultations to look for a successor, without assurance of arriving at a name that will broadly unite. Last option that La France insoumise and Marine Le Pen are seriously considering: a possible resignation of Emmanuel Macron.
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