Electoral earthquake in Romania: a pro-Russian candidate that no one expected placed himself neck and neck with pro-European Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu on Sunday in the first round of the presidential election, according to partial results.
First given a clear lead by the exit polls, the 56-year-old social-democrat leader saw his 62-year-old far-right rival, Calin Georgescu, rise in the evening.
After counting 90% of the ballots, the first obtained 21.1% of the votes, and the second some 22%.
If this trend is confirmed, the two men will face each other in a second round scheduled for December 8, with legislative elections in the meantime in a week.
Elena Lasconi, center-right mayor of a small town, currently appears in third position with 16.6% of the vote, ahead of nationalist candidate George Simion (14.5%).
Whatever the outcome of the vote, “the far right is by far the big winner of this election”, political scientist Cristian Pirvulescu commented for AFP. This won more than a third of the votes.
According to experts, she took advantage of a tense social and geopolitical climate in this loyal EU and NATO member state, located at the gates of Ukraine.
It is an upheaval for this country of 19 million inhabitants which has until now resisted nationalist postures, distinguishing itself from Hungary or Slovakia.
– Campagne TikTok –
On television, commentators were perplexed by the turn of events, while remaining cautious while awaiting the final count.
Mr Ciolacu, who had earlier thanked his voters for a “crystal clear” result, did not speak again.
Ms. Lasconi, a 52-year-old former journalist who converted to politics, for her part called for caution. “The scores are very close, it is not yet time to celebrate,” she said when she thought she had qualified for the second round.
On the far right, the leader of the AUR (Alliance for the Unity of Romanians) party, George Simion, has on the other hand already congratulated his opponent, rejoicing that a “sovereignist” finds himself in the second round.
With his passionate speech with mystical and conspiratorial overtones, Mr. Simion, 38, a big fan of Donald Trump, was considered one of the favorites.
But if he was able to capitalize on the distress of a part of the population impoverished by high inflation, he also wanted to project a moderate image which “was a disservice to the most radical”, analyzes Mr. Pirvulescu.
Conversely, Mr. Georgescu has attracted attention in recent days with a TikTok campaign that has gone viral, focused on the need to stop aid to Ukraine. “This evening, the Romanian people shouted for peace. And they shouted very loudly, extremely loudly,” he reacted.
– “Of change” –
After ten years in power of Klaus Iohannis, a fervent supporter of kyiv who became very unpopular due in particular to his costly trips abroad financed with public money, the Romanians have therefore set their sights on anti-system candidates, against a backdrop of rising ultra-conservative movements in Europe.
In Bucharest, several residents told AFP their desire for “change, to finally see things move”, like Andreea Irimie, a 29-year-old teacher, who came to vote on a cold sunny Sunday, others citing their fear of war.
Romania, sharing a 650-kilometer border with Ukraine and bordered by the Black Sea, plays a “vital” strategic role, recalls the New Strategy Center think tank in a study. Both for NATO, of which it houses more than 5,000 soldiers, and for the transit of Ukrainian cereals.
With these good scores in the presidential election, the far right should benefit from “a contagion effect” in the legislative elections on December 1, predicts Mr. Pirvulescu. Which bodes difficult negotiations to form a coalition.
The social democrats, heirs of the former communist party which has structured the country's political life for more than three decades, currently govern in coalition with the liberals of the PNL.
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