Towards a climate fiasco at COP29

Baku (Azerbaijan), report

« There will be a plenary at 12 p.m. Or at 2 p.m. » To tell the truth, in the now silent aisles of the Baku Olympic stadium, no one really knows where we are. Azerbaijan, host country of the COP29is the scene of an international fiasco. Supposed to have ended on November 22 at 6 p.m., the climate negotiations are bogged down. « We are clearly at an impasse »confirms Rebecca Thissen, of the Climate Action Network International. And already, the hypothesis of an end of COP without agreement. Reporterre goes back over the last twenty-four hours to describe what is happening behind the scenes.

Detailing two totally polarized options, the final draft agreement published on November 21 did not appeal to any negotiator. Perceived as a « slap » by the countries of the South, and described as « clearly unacceptable » by those of the North, was this version only an illusion ? Yes, in the eyes of a French diplomatic source: « As we approach the fence, there is always a bit of drama. The plenary of the day before, where everyone chanted their positions, is one of the pieces of the scenography of this COP. » According to her, « once this dramatization has been purged »a real compromise text – already ready but kept secret by the presidency – was going to be published.

However, the mission seemed clear

Around 3 p.m. on November 22, this famous mystery copy was revealed. Barely out of the printer, it provoked negative epithets from civil society: « disrespectful », « insulting »or « how to play poker with people's lives ? ». However, the mission seemed clear: to set the amount of the annual envelope paid to developing countries to confront the climate crisis, called « new quantified collective objective » or « NCQG ». A consensus of experts had estimated the needs in a range between 1,000 and 1,300 billion dollars per year (960 and 1,250 billion euros).

However, for the very first time, the countries of the North have put their cards on the table by putting forward a real financial proposal: 250 billion. Upon reading the draft agreement, the outcry was immediate: « Climate justice needs no such joke »denounced the Kenyan Obed Koringo, of theONG Care International. « This is not about charity. Nobody's begging for moneyadded the American Rachel Cleetus, of the Union of Concerned Scientists. Rich countries have a historic responsibility for climate change, and today they are trying to escape it. »

Increasing the debt of the most vulnerable

Accessed by Reporterrethe new version is built on « the onion metaphor »so often mentioned in the corridors of the Olympic stadium in Baku. Clearly, article 7 does indeed call for « all actors to work together » pour « reach at least $1.3 trillion ». This is the outer layer of the onion, open to anyone who wishes to contribute — whether governments, banks, private actors or philanthropists. Nothing obligatory, therefore.

The heart of the bulb is included in article 8. It sets the objective of the States historically contributing to this piggy bank: the famous 250 billion dollars, by 2035. A figure judged « minimum » by Rebecca Thissen, advocacy officer at Climate Action Network International: « Especially since a mention specifies that developed countries will have to “play a leading role”. Legally, that doesn't mean anything. Is putting 1 euro into the kitty enough? ? Nobody knows. »

Another element of tension: nothing indicates in the draft agreement that these will be donations. « The ambiguity in paragraph 14, as to whether this financing is grant-based or debt-free, undermines its effectiveness »estimates Youth and Environment Europe. The most vulnerable nations may be forced to borrow and repay interest to cope with the fallout from a crisis whose history is theirs. « banker ».

Better to leave Baku without a deal

Faced with this refusal, what do rich countries say? ? That he is « simply impossible » to reach the thousand billion requested with public money, in the words of Steven Guibeault, Canadian climate minister. A rhetoric shared by the former President of Ireland, Mary Robinson: « Budgets are tight »she declared to the Guardianbefore adding that inflation, the Covid crisis and the war in Ukraine had put a strain on the economies of the North.

« You claim the coffers are empty, but you hand out trillions to the merchants of death, the arms and fossil fuel industriesretorted Asad Rehman, director of the British anti-poverty association War on Want. In the rubble of Gaza, there are not only the mutilated bodies of our sisters and brothers, but also the morality of the Western leaders who armed and fueled this genocide. »

On November 22 at dawn, the presidency of the COP had declared – not without excess optimism once again – that only a few « minor adjustments » could be brought to these new pages. This, before the final publication of the agreement, recording the closure of the great rally, at nightfall. An assertion greeted by the skeptical pout of a French diplomatic source: « Already a final version ? I don't know. » One thing is certain: on the side of civil society, this is out of the question: « Our message is clear, poursuit Obed Koringo. Leaving Baku without an agreement is better than such stupidity. »

« Let's show them we are not defeated »

The day before, before the fiery plenary of the people, the Kenyan activist Omar Elmawi called for mobilization: « Imagine for a moment that our ancestors gave up in the face of slavers. Would we be here today ? They fought against all odds so that we could be born free. So yes, we may be helpless and tired, but we will never give up. » And to add, in a bustling room: « Let's send a message to Nelson Mandela and Martin Luther King. Let's show them that we are not defeated. »

The fact remains that the most precarious delegations are already starting to desert the premises. As hotels in the Azerbaijani capital are overpriced, and plane tickets are not always changeable, some delegates have no other choice but to return to the country. A strategy of rich countries to shed the dissident bloc, questions a Swiss journalist ? « I don't dare believe itreplied an observer. That would be shamefully dishonest. »

On the morning of November 23, the corridors of the COP were almost empty. The negotiations lasted all night, but for now [7 h à Bakou]no new version on the horizon. « I have a plane ticket for Sundaysays a diplomat. If I have to move it to Monday, I will do it. However, at one point or another, we will have to conclude the discussions. »

Will Baku's presidency make history by breaking the record held by Madrid since 2019 ? That year, the final whistle of the COP25 had intervened forty-four hours late. As the Secretary General of the United Nations likes to say… « The clock is ticking. »