Since dawn this Thursday, engineers, soldiers and diplomats have been wondering about the nature of the projectiles sent from southern Russia to the Ukrainian city of Dnipro during the night of Wednesday November 20 to Thursday November 21. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, “all the characteristics: speed, altitude, are those ofa ballistic missile intercontinental (ICBM)», the act of a “crazy neighbor” who uses Ukraine as “testing ground” military. On Thursday evening, Vladimir Putin assured in a speech to the nation that his forces struck Ukraine with a “new experimental medium-range ballistic missile (IRBM)” – until then, Russia officially had none in service. Its engineers would have named it “Orechnik” and he would have targeted a site of “Ukrainian military-industrial complex”. Only one thing is certain: the projectiles did not carry a nuclear charge. In any case, carrying out a test firing of a new missile, whatever it may be, on an operational target is unheard of.
The agitation is up to the challenge. Because the distinction between ICBM and IRBM is significant. In the usually subtle grammar of nuclear deterrence, firing an intercontinental ballistic missile, by definition intended for nuclear strikes, would be an extremely strong strategic signal, on the theme: “Next time I’ll set a nuclear charge.” “If this shooting were confirmed, it would be extremely serious,” ensures Liberation the spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Christophe Lemoine, who in the evening still preferred to use the conditional.
What is a ballistic missile?
Images from black and white CCTV cameras released by Ukrainian authorities show points of light arriving at high speed on Dnipro, a city of a million inhabitants located in southeastern Ukraine. No information has filtered out on the damage, the Ukrainians being careful not to give the Russians any clues about the precision of their strikes, but a missile of this size without significant payload generally creates a crater of around ten meters in width. diameter. Heirs of the Nazi V2, ballistic missiles are propelled at very high speed by a rocket engine above 100 kilometers of altitude, follow a bell-shaped trajectory in space before returning at very high speed to the atmosphere, and fall back on their target, like cannonballs thrown by a Roman “ballista”. “In the images, we see luminous events that shine very brightly, which is characteristic of objects that are slowed down as they enter the atmosphere. They appear to fall at speeds consistent with those of a ballistic missile, estimates a senior French officer. It is possible that several missiles, around six, were sent, each dropping several inert warheads.
While a medium-range ballistic missile (less than 5,500 km) can, in theory, carry conventional charges or nuclear charges, so-called “intercontinental” missiles, which can reach ranges greater than 10,000 km and a cost of the order of 100 million euros each, are designed by the powers equipped with nuclear deterrence as life insurance: “If you attack me, I have the ability to send nuclear charges across the oceans that will do immeasurable damage to your population.”
Could the Orechnik be a revisited RS-26 Rubezh?
The RS-26 Rubezh is a large ballistic missile weighing 36,000 tonnes developed by the Russians in 2011, which has an official range of 5,800 kilometers. It can transport four “mirvéd” nuclear warheads (neologism from the English MIRV, for Multiple Independently targeted Reentry Vehicle). This means that each missile releases four warheads which follow an independent trajectory upon entry into the atmosphere.
Officially, the RS-26 program was frozen in 2018, because it appeared very limited with the INF Treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons ratified in 1988 by the United States and Russia to end the Euromissile crisis. The FNI in fact banned all American and Soviet missiles, cruise and ballistic, with conventional or nuclear warheads, launched from the ground and having a range between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. According to a French expert, “the Russians had probably carried out a dry test which allowed him to go further and assert that he was not concerned by the FNI”.
The United States has since withdrawn from the INF, claiming that the Russians had violated it. It is not impossible that Moscow has decided to resume the program placed “mothballed”, the equipment kept in a protected environment, and released it with a new name, and this time with its real label of “medium-range ballistic missile”. This could explain why no Russian IRBM tests have been observed in recent years and why Moscow is taking the decision to launch experimental equipment for very limited military interest, knowing that Ukraine's allies will rush to study the debris.
Where would it have been taken from?
Since 1959, the United States has implemented a detection system called SEW which in real time informs NATO allies of ballistic missile takeoffs around the globe, and calculates, with the speed and angle of takeoff, the estimated impact area. The staffs of the allied countries therefore knew from the first second where the missile took off.
According to the Ukrainians, the projectile was fired “from the Astrakhan region”. However, there does not appear to be a launch silo in the area. This would indicate that the projectile was sent into space from a truck brought there – the RS-26 is an evolution of the RS-24 Yars, which can be fired from a mobile launcher or from a fixed site. Or it was launched from the Kapustin Yar test firing range, located about 800 kilometers west of Dnipro – ballistic missiles can be launched almost vertically and fall very close to their launch site. launch. This is what the North Koreans do during their tests, by playing with the speed of rotation of the Earth, or Elon Musk with his launchers. Firing from a test site would have shown that it was not a nuclear attack. And using one or more old missiles withdrawn from service would avoid emptying Russian operational stocks.
Why such a shot?
Initially, the announcement of an intercontinental ballistic missile firing in combat shocked all analysts. “It would be the first time in history that such a weapon would be used against an opposing country, even if the message is very calibrated, with the choice of the target, Dnipro and not Kyiv, and inert warheads,” recalls the French expert. The risk of misunderstanding being phenomenal, Washington admitted, in the evening, to having been warned of the shot in advance.
Secondly, Putin's announcement that it was ultimately a medium-range IRBM missile was disconcerting. Because the military objective of the maneuver is quite limited and, in this case, the strategic message becomes very vague. “Perhaps the Russians have already started negotiations with the Americans on the settlement of the Ukrainian question and wanted to make a show of force to influence the negotiations. But that Moscow can fire a nuclear missile without a nuclear warhead at 800 km and with advance warning is not a surprise, and should not move the chancelleries. says an observer. At the end of the day, Geoff Brumfiel, science journalist for American radio NPR, summed up the situation on X as follows: “The US government, which has tens of thousands of analysts, also struggles with the IRBM/MRBM distinction. It’s confusing.”
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