The debate rages: should we maintain regulated electricity sales prices (TRV)? To date, 59% of French households are subscribed to it – or 20.6 million households – and 35% of small professionals. Proof that the question divides, two reports published successively on Wednesday, from the Competition Authority, then from the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE), delivered opposing recommendations. For the first, we must already prepare for their disappearance. As for the second, it pleads for their maintenance.
A priori, the government, which must submit its decision to the Brussels executive by the end of the year, will choose the second option. The Minister Delegate for Energy, Olga Givernet, recalled “ the attachment of the French » et « of national representation » at these prices.
And yet, these have not protected the French from the surge in energy prices in 2022 and 2023. For several months, they have even represented a shortfall of several billion euros for the French who have subscribed, most competing offers displaying much more attractive prices. Worse: their method of calculation will change from 2026, so as to index them 100% to the market, without any regulation by the State (except in extreme cases).
Principle of contestability
To understand this, you have to look at how this subscription works. The TRV is updated twice a year, in February and August, based on a calculation by the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE). Objective: to avoid constant fluctuations in invoices. It includes three blocks of costs: taxes and the network usage tariff – as for all offers in France -, the supply of electricity on the markets, as well as a part supervised by the State, which the this is called ARENH (regulated access to historic nuclear electricity) and which allows EDF's competitors to access 100 terawatt hours (TWh) at a low price, at 42 euros/MWh.
Concretely, this structure allows the historic supplier to be able to replicate at any time the supply conditions of its rivals, such as TotalEnergies, Octopus Energy, Alpiq or even labellenergie, so that they can offer the same type of tariff to their own customers.
And that's the hypocrisy: by virtue of a principle called “contestability” enshrined in European law, EDF does not have the right to have an advantage over alternative suppliers, even if it generates the vast majority of electricity consumed in France. Indeed, the TRV is built in such a way that any supply company, whether it has production infrastructure or not, is able to compete. Nothing to do, therefore, with a tariff which would reflect EDF's production costs, since it is competition which prevails in this market.
For more than a year, EDF has therefore been marketing the TRV at a price much higher than its own cost price. It is also for this reason that the historic operator benefited from a huge windfall effect in 2023. Since its competitors had to obtain supplies at high prices in markets gone crazy, the TRV adjusted under these exceptional conditions. This generated some 20 billion euros more over the year for EDF, as we wrote last year.
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No unpleasant surprises along the way
Result: it was not the TRV which protected the French during the crisis. Because for the reason mentioned previously, the CRE had to propose a 35% increase in the TRV in February 2022… and around +100% in February 2023 and August 2023. If the monthly payments have not exploded to this point, this is because the State has put in place a very costly tariff shield for public finances. However, by virtue, again, of the principle of contestability, this aid system did not only concern the TRV, since other suppliers were also subsidized to stem the surge in their customers' bills.
The fact remains: some of them have still drastically increased their prices, and most have even closed the subscription of new customers, leading to an unprecedented influx at EDF. This is also one of the only advantages of the TRV: EDF does not have the right to modify it during the course or to prevent a consumer from subscribing to it, and must adhere to the bi-annual calculation. of the CRE as well as with the approval of the State.
“In fact, it is a symbolic protection: small consumers have the feeling that it protects them from unpleasant surprises,” notes economist Jacques Percebois, director of Energy Economics and Law Research Center (CREDEN).
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What TRV are we talking about?
But this framework has a counterpart: since the TRV is only reviewed twice a year in order to avoid shocks, it is smoothed on the basis, among other things, of the market prices of the previous two years. The one that applies at the moment (until next February) therefore partly reflects the spot prices of electricity in 2022 and 2023… i.e. the worst years of the crisis, with prices more than twice as high as those of today.
While the markets have calmed down, alternative suppliers, who nevertheless benefited from the same price shield during the crisis, do not have this constraint and can therefore now offer offers up to 30% cheaper.
« LFrench people on TRV lose around 300 euros over the year compared to a competing offer. In total, this represents nearly 5 billion euros in shortfall. », calculates Fabien Chonéformer boss of Direct Energies and ex-president of the National Association of Energy Retail Operators (ANODE).
Finally, all this should get worse from 2026: the ARENH will then bow out, so that the TRV will only depend on taxes, network tariffs and electricity prices on the exchanges. Without any price regulation ex anteSO. “ Tomorrow, it will only be a market offer validated by the CRE, then by the ministry. Less ARENH, the consumer will therefore be much more exposed to crises », affirms Jacques Percebois. The question of whether or not to maintain TRVs is therefore superimposed on another: what TRV are we talking about?
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