why is Putin changing Russian nuclear doctrine?

The Russian president signed a decree expanding the use of nuclear weapons, as the United States increases its military aid to Ukraine.

Vladimir Putin is once again brandishing the nuclear threat. On Tuesday, November 19, the Russian president signed a decree theoretically allowing broader use of nuclear weapons.

The change in doctrine, announced in September by Vladimir Putin, considers as a “joint attack” any aggression by a “non-nuclear State, but with the participation or support of a nuclear State”, a clear reference to Ukraine and in the United States.

“Among the conditions justifying the use of nuclear weapons is the launch of ballistic missiles against Russia,” indicates this text published at a time when Ukraine is carrying out its first strikes on Russian territory with American long-range missiles.

Another case which opens the way to the use of the supreme weapon, “the provision of territory and resources for aggression against Russia”, details the text signed by Vladimir Putin.

Regular threats since 2022

The publication of this decree follows Washington's decision to authorize kyiv to use long-range American missiles to strike Russia in depth, while the Ukrainian army had until now been limited to targets located in occupied Ukraine ( such as in Crimea) or in border areas.

“Their revised nuclear doctrine and rhetoric are nothing more than blackmail. They have already used it many times when strong decisions were taken,” denounced Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha.

Since the outbreak of the invasion, the Russian president has in fact brandished the nuclear threat on several occasions, staging military exercises or deploying “tactical” weapons on the territory of his Belarusian ally.

For Jérôme Clech, defense consultant for BFMTV, these are “ravings that we observe each time there is an increase in support for American aid and which aim to impress opinions Western public institutions.

Vladimir Putin's threats only underline Russia's “weakness in the face of NATO's conventional (non-nuclear, editor's note) forces”, continues our specialist.

“This is a signaling exercise, aimed at frightening public opinion in Europe – and to a lesser extent, in the United States – so that they stop supporting Ukraine”, abounds in the New York Times Matthew Bunn, Harvard professor and nuclear specialist.

Use still unlikely

The Russian announcements were condemned by Ukraine's supporting countries, but did not cause any panic. In the United States, the National Security Council has “noted any change in Russia's nuclear posture” and believes that there is no reason for Washington “to adjust its own nuclear doctrine”, according to a senior official cited by the AP agency.

“It’s rhetorical, let’s not let ourselves be intimidated,” Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot also said on Europe 1 and Cnews this Wednesday morning.

The probability of Russian recourse to atomic weapons in the short or medium term is in fact no higher or lower than before, according to several specialists.

“The threshold for use (of nuclear weapons) remains relatively high in the context of the war in Ukraine. The circumstances that would push Moscow to actually consider the use of nuclear weapons would be extreme and, at this stage, little probable”, analyzes Ifri researcher Dimitri Minic on his X account.

According to this specialist in the Russian armed forces, such a scenario would imply “that Ukraine is on the verge of seizing symbolically important territories, such as Crimea, or that its armed incursions into Russian territory become uncontrollable for Moscow.” In addition, Vladimir Putin would have to consider “Western determination and solidarity” as too fragile to carry out reprisals.

However, as it stands, “the conventional and nuclear doctrine of the United States and NATO is capable of dissuading Russia from using nuclear power,” believes Vipin Narang, professor at MIT, in the same New York Times article. .

After the American ATACMS missile launches on the night of Monday to Tuesday, the Kremlin spokesperson announced that Russia would react “accordingly”, without mentioning nuclear weapons.