Moscow promises “appropriate” response

THE WORLD THAT MOVES. Ukraine struck Russia for the first time with US long-range missiles. Moscow promises an “appropriate” response.

Shootings denounced by Moscow before being confirmed by kyiv. The Ukrainian army struck the Russian border region of Bryansk on the night of Monday to Tuesday with American-made ATACMS missiles.

These tactical missiles with a range of 300 kilometers targeted a large munitions depot near the town of Karachev. The targeted arsenal contained artillery ammunition, air defense missiles as well as shells supplied by North Korea according to kyiv. These strikes did not cause any casualties, indicates the Russian Ministry of Defense.

The lifting of restrictions on the use of American ATACMS was described as “an unprecedented step towards World War III” by a Russian senator. The question now is how the Kremlin will react. The head of diplomacy promised an “appropriate” response to the Ukrainian shots.

A “predictable escalation”

A few hours after the green light given by Biden, Vladimir Putin expanded by decree the possibilities of using nuclear weapons. It's not really a surprise. Even the pro-Kremlin Russian tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravda speaks of a “predictable escalation”.

“This is the 110th time since the start of the war that Putin has threatened nuclear weapons. It's hard to believe, it's more of a form of rhetorical argument and it will also be an argument for him at the negotiating table. But will it use nuclear weapons to respond to a Ukrainian air attack? It’s improbable” declares Guillaume Ancel, BFMTV consultant

At the end of September, Vladimir Putin warned that any assault carried out by a non-nuclear country, such as Ukraine, but supported by a power with atomic weapons, such as the United States, could be considered a “joint” aggression, requiring potentially a use of nuclear weapons.

The contours of Russian blackmail remain vague and certainly intentional. Which would be a source of tension within the Kremlin itself. According to an internal source, cited by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), one faction is annoyed by the lack of clarity of the “red lines” while another calls for the creation of an even more ambiguous nuclear doctrine in order to prevent the West from being able to accurately predict a Russian response.

Block

The White House and the EU denounce Russia's “irresponsible rhetoric”. Just before, Volodymyr Zelensky had protested at the lack of reaction from the G20 leaders meeting in Brazil. No more was needed. The statements then followed one another. Emmanuel Macron calls Moscow “to reason” and denounces an “escalatory” posture. The United Kingdom will support kyiv “as long as necessary to win this war against Putin,” insists Keir Starmer.

At the UN, around fifty states reaffirm their support. The uncertainty caused by the return of Donald Trump (who does not comment on the latest developments) is making Western allies agitated. For the head of European diplomacy, division is not an option. “The fate of the Ukrainians will determine the destiny of the European Union,” said Josep Borrell, who said he hoped that “all EU member states will follow the American decision.”

The green light from the Americans once again raises the question of the use of French Scalps and British Storm Shadows. Berlin still refuses to deliver Taurus missiles to kyiv, with a range of 500 km. “Nothing has changed” in Germany's position, the defense minister said yesterday.

The Biden administration, on the other hand, has decided to take another step in its support. It announced Wednesday morning that it would supply Ukraine with antipersonnel mines. To see if this will dissipate the reluctance of other NATO members.