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Long described as isolated in its opposition to the free trade agreement between the European Union (EU) and the Latin American countries of Mercosur, France continues to resist. Emmanuel Macron assured that other EU countries refused to sign the treaty as it stands. Could France's weight be enough to tip the scales and cause the negotiations, which were supposed to be finalized soon, to fail? Decryption.
Faced with the growing discontent of farmers, the government assures us: France will continue “to maintain a standoff for as long as necessary” with the European Union against the EU-Mercosur free trade treaty. Government spokesperson Maud Bregeon echoed, Tuesday, November 19, the promises of the Head of State the day before. For her, the agreement with the treaty countries (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay), defended by several large countries of the European Union, Germany and Spain in particular, “constitutes unfair competition that is absolutely unacceptable for our breeders, because it is not coherent on an ecological level and in particular with regard to the Paris Agreement”.
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On Monday, Emmanuel Macron, traveling to Brazil for the G20, explained that France had been looking for “allies” for weeks to postpone the signing of this agreement. “Contrary to what many think, France is not isolated and many are joining us,” assured the President of the Republic from Rio. He cited the “Poles, Austrians, Italians and several others in Europe.”
An emerging opposition within the EU?
The European Commission, and its President Ursula Von Der Leyen, seem determined to quickly conclude this free trade agreement with Latin American countries.
Negotiated for more than 20 years, this treaty provides in particular for beef import quotas with reduced or zero customs duties. “This text […] because it has been engaged for several decades, is based on prerequisites which are obsolete”, insisted Emmanuel Macron. He put forward the idea of ”rethinking the relationship with this sub-region”.
On Monday, the Italian Minister of Agriculture Francesco Lollobrigida also indicated that he considered that this agreement was, “in its current form”, “not acceptable”.
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To block the text, France must rally at least three countries to its cause and they must represent a total of more than 35% of the European population. While it seemed isolated until now, the decline of Italy, representing 13% of the European population, could work in favor of France which, for its part, represents 15%, underlines Europe 1. If Poland, representing , she, 8% of the European demographic, also joined the opposition camp, the 35% would then be exceeded. The trio would only have to find a fourth country to rally to their cause. A role that could be filled by Austria, if we are to believe the words of Emmanuel Macron. The Austrian Assembly also adopted a resolution opposing the agreement.
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A France-EU return match, Germany as referee?
It will remain to hold out against the German titan for whom this signing is vital. At the G20, Chancellor Olaf Scholz reaffirmed that the free trade agreement “must finally be completed”. While Berlin previously opposed it under Angela Merkel, the German economy, now in recession, needs this trade treaty, summed up by many as a “meat for cars” exchange and which would expand export opportunities for its industry.
On the Brussels side, the finalization of the negotiations seems to be nothing more than a formality. Ursula Von Der Leyen has already booked her plane tickets for Montevideo on December 6, where the agreement should be officially sealed at the Mercosur summit, says the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitungrelayed by Courrier International. But the scenario had already unfolded like this last year, and the final negotiations had ultimately failed due, among other things, to the opposition of Emmanuel Macron. The latter refused to see French farmers, already mobilized across the country, sacrificed for the benefit of this agreement and consequently, the far right emerging strengthened from a possible agricultural crisis.
In France, opposition to the treaty seems unanimous. The government will propose a debate in Parliament followed by a vote, Matignon announced on Tuesday, even as the farmers' protest movement is gaining momentum.
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