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According the the National Weather Service in Eureka, residents across Northwest California should prepare for a significant weather event as a strong atmospheric river system is set to bring prolonged moderate-to-heavy rains, beginning Tuesday afternoon and continuing through the weekend.
NWS posted on Facebook that the heaviest rain is expected on Wednesday, with forecasts predicting 2 to 4 inches of rain. Persistent rainfall is likely to follow from Thursday through Saturday, with an additional 1 to 3 inches expected each day. Total storm accumulations could range between 6 to 14 inches, with higher elevations, particularly in the King Range, potentially receiving up to 21 inches over the course of the storm.
Flooding and Hydrologic Outlook
A Hydrologic Outlook issued by the NWS warns of the potential for rapid river rises and flooding due to saturated soils, especially in Humboldt and Del Norte counties. Areas with poor drainage and low-lying regions are at an increased risk of flooding. Rivers, streams, and creeks are expected to rise rapidly, with the Eel River showing a 20% chance of exceeding flood stage by Thursday evening. The Mad River and Russian River also have a 5-10% chance of reaching flood levels.
Mendocino and Lake counties, though slightly drier, are still likely to experience significant rainfall, though the risk of flooding may be somewhat reduced there. In Trinity County, colder temperatures could mean that much of the precipitation will fall as snow, particularly above 2,500 feet, potentially mitigating some flood risks.
High Wind Watch in Effect
In addition to heavy rains, a High Wind Watch has been issued for interior parts of Humboldt County, including areas like Garberville, Kneeland, and Shively. The watch is in effect from Tuesday evening through late Tuesday night, with southeast winds forecasted at 20 to 30 mph, gusting up to 65 mph along exposed ridges. These strong winds could result in downed trees and power lines, with widespread power outages a possibility.
The NWS urges residents to secure outdoor items, prepare for potential power outages, and stay updated on forecasts.
Potential Hazards
- Flooding: Roadways, small streams, low-lying areas, and places with poor drainage are especially vulnerable.
- Wind Damage: Strong gusts could bring down trees and power lines, posing risks to infrastructure and travel, particularly for high-profile vehicles.
- Landslides: The risk of debris flows and rockslides increases, especially in steep terrain areas already saturated from previous rainfall.
Timing and What to Expect
- Rainfall: Begins Tuesday at 10 AM, with the most intense rain on Wednesday. Lighter but steady rain is expected through Saturday.
- Winds: High Wind Watch in effect from Tuesday evening through late night.
The weather service advises everyone in the affected areas to stay informed and prepared for rapidly changing conditions. For updates, visit weather.gov/eka.
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