Trains: should we be worried about Christmas?

The SNCF unions are calling for an indefinite strike from December 11, ten days before the Christmas holidays. With, as the main reason for anger, the dismantling of the freight branch. Enough, for users, to revive bad memories of 2022, when the TGVs were canceled by the hundreds during the holidays. And maintain the image of railway workers systematically using the threat of Christmas to win their case (that year, they obtained good salary increases). For Stéphane Sirot, historian specializing in social movements, there is no doubt: “The holiday period is a good time to exert maximum pressure on management. » But, he emphasizes to France 24, of the trains stopping at that time, “it's not something traditional”. Between the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020, the carrier certainly experienced the longest social conflict since its creation (it was against the universal points-based retirement system). But before that, we had to go back to 1986 to find traces of a massive strike at the SNCF, at Christmas.

The probability that we will be on strike at Christmas is not even 1%!

The unions appear, in fact, concerned about their relationship with public opinion. As evidenced by their current communication: “The probability that we will be on strike at Christmas is not even 1%”, estimates Fabien Villedieu, federal secretary of Sud-Rail, to Franceinfo. “If, on December 11, the strike is followed, in four days, it will be over and we will have won. If, on December 11, the strike is not followed, in three days, we will have returned to work,” he assures.

Same promise from the FNSEA

This promise not to take Christmas hostage is reminiscent of that made by the agricultural union FNSEA. It could, however, stumble on one element: at the time of the holidays, social movements come, most of the time, from the base (in 2022, a collective of controllers born on social networks). A base that is not very sensitive to the exasperation that it can cause among users. Hence a growing demand: that of banning the strike in public transport during the holidays. Some countries, like Italy, are already doing this. According to a survey by the CSA institute for Le JDD, Europe 1 and CNews, 62% of French people are in favor. This wish is particularly strong among right-wing voters (89%) and among supporters of Emmanuel Macron (83%). But it is also shared by 40% of La France insoumise voters. A sign that the Christmas strike is really not popular.

Regulating the right to strike in transport is not relevant

Will the bill to this effect, passed in the Senate last spring, be taken up by the government? Some within it, such as the Minister of the Interior Bruno Retailleau, are in favor. “Regulating the right to strike in transport is not relevant,” however, informs RMC of the entourage of the Minister of Transport, François Durovray (LR, too). With the obvious desire not to add fuel to the fire, as the “warm-up strike” approaches, as the inter-union calls it, announced this Thursday, November 21.