Analysis of Biden’s ATACMS decision –
Fear of escalation by the USA? It is Putin who is escalating
The US President finally allows Kiev to use long-range weapons on Russian territory. Now Germany’s Chancellor Scholz must follow suit.
Analysis of Published today at 3:25 p.m
Month after month, Ukrainians asked for permission to fire US weapons deep into Russian territory. Now, shortly before his resignation, Joe Biden got the OK.
Foto: Ukrainian Presidential Press Office, Getty Images
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The outraged reactions from Russia came quickly, and they came as expected. “Highly provocative” is Joe Biden’s permission for Kiev to fire long-range US weapons into Russia, “Rossiyskaya Gazeta”, a newspaper close to the Kremlin, reported on Monday. The USA risked “catastrophic consequences”. Vladimir Putin’s spokesman made a similar statement. The USA wanted to “further stoke the fire and provoke further escalation,” said Dmitri Peskov. It only took a few hours for Russia to start buzzing around the fact that a decisive step had now been taken towards the third world war.
It’s been like this for a long time. Kremlin leader Putin always warns the West against this step, saying it amounts to NATO involvement in Ukraine, meaning the West is fighting directly against Russia. It’s a narrative that resonates well with his compatriots: Russia is the victim that defends itself against the warmongering West.
Politically, things are currently going quite well for the Kremlin leader, who is threatening to use nuclear weapons and have Ukraine bombed.
Photo: Mikahil Metzel (AFP)
So now the reactions are ultimate and many people are correspondingly worried that things could get even worse, even more deadly in Ukraine – possibly also for Western allies. The Kremlin repeatedly threatens to use nuclear weapons. And now, in addition to the USA, Great Britain and France apparently want to follow suit and release the Scalp and Storm Shadow weapon systems for Russian territory.
First swarms of drones, then highly destructive missiles
But the escalation is already there – impressively demonstrated again by Russia at the weekend: nationwide alarm. Russia first sent large swarms of drones, then countless highly destructive missiles. And of course Russia didn’t just attack military facilities, critical infrastructure and residential buildings were the target.
Destruction in the capital Kiev, explosions and impacts in Odessa, supply lines destroyed, heating systems failing, people queuing for water in the middle of November – and deaths everywhere. In Sumi at least eight people, including children. Again, like last time in Kriwi Rih. At the beginning of the week, gruesome images of corpses on the street were making the rounds from Odessa.
And then there is the military escalation: Russia has recently been purchasing large quantities soldiers from North Korea, the dictator country is drawn into the war – the escalation is already in full swing, Russia is leading the way. It is therefore long overdue for Ukraine’s most powerful ally, the USA, to respond.
The US ATACMS weapon system has a range of up to 300 kilometers.
US Army Photo (AFP)
Russia also currently has a military advantage. In eastern Ukraine, the armed forces are making slow but steady progress. Added to this is Putin’s good standing on the international stage: the Western allies are caught up in domestic political crises (think of the broken traffic light coalition in Germany), and the EU as a Ukraine alliance is in a weak position. Putin, however, travels to Mongolia unhindered despite an arrest warrant, he greets UN chief Antonio Guterres at his Brics summit in Kazan. He provokes and escalates, things are going well for him. Why should the Kremlin now send out tactical nuclear weapons when this is not militarily necessary but the damage to the Kremlin would be much greater?
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Especially since the ruler in the Kremlin also knows that the far-reaching attacks will not be decisive in the war. They can have a serious impact on the Russian military, for example in Kursk, where the Ukrainian army is now planning an initial attack. But they won’t turn the war around.
Biden’s decision now also exerts pressure in other ways, and that’s a good thing: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz vehemently denies Ukraine the long-range Taurus weapons. He is now facing early elections and his confirmation in office is unlikely. He could do as Biden did, use his remaining time and abandon this stance. That would be a clear signal to Putin that the West can withstand the perfidious nuclear threat. This stop signal must now be presented to Putin.
If the clearance from the USA had come earlier, attacks could have been prevented, fewer people would have died – that is the bitter insight of the now correct Biden decision. Scholz has to follow suit – and it would even be convenient for him. He can stick to his stance that he will strictly adhere to the US line. So why wait?
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