Ukraine is allowed to attack targets in Russia with US missiles

US-PräBiden has allowed Ukraine to attack targets in Russia with American missiles. How important is this decision?ür die Ukraine?

Alexander Dubowy: This decision was long overdue and had been suggested by the Ukrainian leadership for months. This option was discussed extensively in the Western alliance, but was repeatedly rejected. This makes Joe Biden’s decision all the more surprising, as it represents an almost complete reversal of his previous policies. So far, the US President has attached great importance to strictly adhering to the red lines that, in his view, are crucial for Russia.

Why the change of heart?

The New York Times and the Washington Post report, citing sources from the Biden administration, that the deployment of North Korean troops in the Kursk region was the actual trigger for Biden’s move. From the US government’s perspective, the decision to release the missiles could also be a kind of warning to North Korea not to send any more troops, because they will be immediately destroyed with precision weapons.

At the front the Ukrainians always comeärker under pressure. Do they succeed with the new Möare things now turning around?

We must distinguish here between the symbolic and the military levels. The symbolic level is actually very important. It is an important signal to Ukraine. From a purely military perspective, however, this permission will not bring about the desired turn in the war.

Which targets in Russia will Ukraine now attack with US missiles?

In the short term, Ukraine will be able to specifically attack Russian logistics centers and ammunition depots by using Western long-range weapons. Larger Russian troop concentrations, such as those in the Kursk region, are also being targeted, as are military airports. Russia will probably be able to adapt to this in the medium and long term, for example by diversifying its logistics routes, moving supply centers further inland or increasing the use of electronic jamming systems.

So if the US government’s decision comes to spät?

If this decision had been made a year ago, the situation would have been significantly different. At that time, Ukraine’s situation was much more favorable and Russia would have had less time to prepare for such a scenario. However, after months of discussions, it was clear to Putin that this step would come and Russia was given the time to prepare accordingly. Whether the preparations were successful will become clear in the coming weeks.

Putin expected this?

Certainly. Previous decisions were similar, for example when it came to the delivery of modern battle tanks or anti-aircraft systems. The current step has also been announced for a long time. Russia was therefore able to adapt to this.

ÜHow many US long-range missiles have?üagainst the Ukrainians?

This is not publicly known. The delivery times are also unclear. The USA, but also Great Britain and France, with whom the US decision was apparently coordinated, are planning to deliver more missiles. At the moment, however, the number is likely to be small.

The newly chosenählte US-PräPresident Donald Trump is more critical of Ukraineüber like Biden. Er köEverything could be backüturn back.

From his inauguration on January 20th, Trump could overturn almost all of Biden’s decisions. However, it is entirely possible that Biden coordinated this decision with Donald Trump in some way. It is a surprising turnaround for Biden, as he was always very worried about an uncontrollable escalation. And when it comes to the use of long-range weapons, Vladimir Putin announced in mid-September that this was actually a very clear red line from the Russian perspective. Against this background, coordinating the decision with Trump would only be logical.

How will Putin react now?

In my opinion, Russia will not be able to really respond to this because the only way Moscow has to massively escalate this conflict is through the use of nuclear weapons.

The wäre the ultimate escalation. Putin has too früearlier times explainedärt that an attack on Russian territory would trigger a nuclear strikeösen würde.

Vladimir Putin said that, yes. However, nuclear escalation remains unlikely. After all, Russian territory has long been attacked, for example by Ukrainian drones that attacked Russian military targets deep behind the front. The Kerch Bridge to Crimea was attacked several times. And Putin also did not see the Ukrainian attack on Kursk as a reason to use nuclear weapons.

That’s no guarantee that he’ll knock it outüwill not do so in the future.

Russia does not view this war in isolation, but as a complex political process. This means that the political dimension is just as important as the military one; if not more important. In addition, Putin always leaves as many options for action open as possible. If nuclear weapons were used, even on a very limited scale, Putin would immediately lose most of his options for action and with it his last allies. China and India have warned Moscow several times against the use of nuclear weapons and the USA has announced a very harsh reaction.

This is where Trump comes into play again. His küfuture security advisor already stated some time agoärt that the Ukrainians are attacking targets in Russia köns should. Hold it für mölike Trump is acting differently than the cautious Biden and increasing the pressure on Putinöht to force him to the negotiating table?

The United States appears to long for an end to the war across party lines. One of the most important questions to be solved is how do you get Vladimir Putin to actually want to end this war? From his point of view, there are currently very few reasons for this. With the current decision, the West is increasing the pressure on Moscow and showing Putin the hopelessness of his war efforts.

If America continues to increase the pressure on Putinöht and the Europeanähe, perhaps even Germany, will follow würden, köSo there could be some kind of turnaround in the war after all.

Not a military one, but possibly a political one. It also looks like Great Britain and France are following suit. And Germany would be isolated in terms of security policy if they didn’t do the same with the Taurus deliveries.

The Ukrainian Präsident Zelensky wasn’t just glühappy with the decision. He criticized that this was not possible öpublicly acceptedündige. This gave the Ukrainians the Ütaken as a surprise.

Volodimir Selensky is of course right, the surprise effect is gone. But that shows again that the West is not counting on the military effect, but on the political one. In order for it to become a political game changer, you have to announce it and put Putin under pressure. In this way you signal to him: Sit down at the negotiating table!