Ukraine on the defensive, both militarily and diplomatically

The decision had been expected for months. It was eventually delivered at an extremely perilous time for Ukraine. Kyiv’s request to use long-range ATACMS missiles to aim at military targets deep inside Russian territory was approved by US President Joe Biden, according to several official sources quoted on Sunday, November 17, by US media.

The authorization was intended to enable Volodymyr Zelensky to approach possible peace negotiations from a better position, as the Russian army continues to make territorial gains on the frontline and step up its bombardment of cities. On Saturday night, dozens of drones and missiles were launched against the country’s energy infrastructure, more than half of whose production capacity has been destroyed in similar strike campaigns in recent months. On Sunday evening, the Ukrainian president gave a very measured reaction to the US announcement. “Strikes are not made of words. Such things don’t announce themselves. The missiles will speak for themselves,” said Zelensky in the daily video he sends to his compatriots.

Obtain safety guarantees

While Donald Trump, the US president-elect, promised during his campaign that he would manage to bring the war to an end “within 24 hours,” Zelensky declared on Friday that Ukraine must “do everything to bring this war to an end next year, by diplomatic means,” in an interview with the public television channel Suspilne, while warning that the country must strengthen its position on the battlefield in order to be able to negotiate a lasting peace.

Kyiv and its allies fear that a rapid resolution of the war will inevitably lead to territorial concessions to Russia, and an abandonment of Ukraine’s aspirations to join the NATO military alliance. The Ukrainian authorities are still officially refusing to cede their territories and are seeking sufficient security guarantees to protect themselves from further Russian attacks if the fighting stops, such as an official invitation to join NATO.

Russia, for its part, wants to retain all the territory it occupies (around 20% of Ukraine today) and the assurance that Kyiv will not join the alliance. For the moment, Russian President Vladimir Putin seems keen to push his advantage on the front line, where his army is advancing at the cost of heavy losses in several areas in the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions, while Ukrainian forces are suffering from a lack of equipment and soldiers.

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