what changes does the American authorization to use its long-range missiles to strike Russian soil change?

They have been asking for it for months. The Ukrainians have obtained authorization from the United States to strike Russian territory with long-range missiles supplied by Washington. Although the White House has not yet officially confirmed it, this green light constitutes a major development in American policy. These ATACMS missiles, with a range of 300 km, will allow kyiv to remotely reach Russian army logistics sites. Franceinfo explains to you what this strategic decision decided by Joe Biden could change, a few weeks before Donald Trump's return to power.

Aid that will help expand the Ukrainian firing range

Until then, kyiv could use the long-range missiles only against Russian targets on official Ukrainian territory (in occupied Crimea, for example, with several British Storm Shadow shots) or on artillery batteries located on the other side of the border. From now on, the Ukrainian army will therefore be able to attack, more forcefully, logistical nodes, airfields from which Russian bombers depart, and other targets of military interest. “The Ukrainians demanded the possibility, to counter Russian attacks, of being able to strike on Russian territory the bases from which the missiles which devastated part of their infrastructure were sent,” Lieutenant-Colonel Guillaume Ancel told franceinfo.

These ATACMS missiles, for “Army Tactical Missile System”, should initially be used to repel Moscow's counterattack in the Russian border region of Kursk. Some 50,000 troops, including 10,000 North Koreans, are currently deployed there, according to the New York Timeswhich cites U.S. officials speaking on condition of anonymity. “Fired from Ukrainian combat aircraft, the Sukhoi SU-24, these missiles have the advantage of being more resistant to jamming than others”reminds L’Express.

At the end of August, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a research center based in the United States, published a map of nearly 250 Russian military installations within the range of missiles delivered by the West. Air bases, communications equipment, regiments, oil depots… We have represented these 245 strategic points on the map below, as well as the area affected by the maximum range of Ukrainian missiles.

Help that arrives at a crucial time

This “go” from the United States comes at a time when Ukrainian troops are in difficulty on the front. In addition, Ukraine was once again the target of massive Russian strikes on its soil over the weekend of November 16-17. Results: at least 10 dead and around twenty injured across the country, according to the authorities. Already very fragile, the Ukrainian energy network has been particularly damaged, to the point of forcing the electricity network manager, Ukrenergo, to put in place “restrictive measures” consumption throughout its territory on Monday.

This change of footing by the American administration also comes a few weeks before Donald Trump's return to the White House. During his presidential campaign, the Republican was not shy in criticizing the tens of billions of dollars released by Washington for Ukraine since the start of the Russian invasion. The president-elect has regularly claimed he can end the war “in one day”even before taking office on January 20, without ever explaining how.

The White House is therefore committed “in a race against time”summary The World. She must “send more than 7 billion dollars to Ukraine [6,6 milliards d’euros] of equipment and ammunition already released, so as not to leave any funds intact before the inauguration of Donald Trump”.

Aid that involves Western countries even more

Washington has so far refused to give the green light, for fear of an escalation with Moscow. The upcoming return of Donald Trump to power has reshuffled the cards. The use of long-range missiles also has a strong symbolic dimension, because “It was one of the last red lines that had been set by the White House”explains geopolitical analyst Ulrich Bounat to franceinfo.

The Kremlin was quick to react. Its spokesperson Dmitri Peskov accuses the United States of “throw fuel on the fire”. This authorization leads to “a fundamentally new situation in terms of US involvement in this conflict”he warned.

In mid-September, Vladimir Putin had already warned: “If this decision is taken, it will mean nothing less than direct involvement of NATO countries in the war in Ukraine. It will change the very nature of the conflict. It will mean that NATO countries are at war against Russia.”

“Rhetorically, the Russians will probably make thunderous declarations, accusing NATO of being belligerent once again. But we must always make a difference between the declaratory and the ground,” tempers Ulrich Bounat.

Aid which should not allow the balance of power to be reversed

This lifting of restrictions on the use of missiles was included in the five-pronged “victory plan” presented in October by Volodymyr Zelensky. This green light alone should not, however, change the course of the war. “The delivery of German Leopard tanks did not allow the Ukrainians to make a real breakthrough, resituates L’Express. If the American Himars multiple rocket launchers wreaked havoc at the end of 2022 in Russian depots and command centers, they were able to adapt by pushing their logistics centers beyond their reach.

Above all, this green light perhaps comes a little too late. The Russian army seems to have already (partly) anticipated the lifting of this restriction. “We have seen that part of the Russian air bases located within range of these missiles have been emptied of their main strategic bombers which have been moved further away,” reframes geopolitologist Ulrich Bounat.

Some political leaders in kyiv also have doubts about the effectiveness of these missiles, like MP Maria Ionova, who sits on the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Ukrainian Parliament. “We appreciate” this green light, she said, “but this will not bring victory”she said, according to The Guardian. Before adding: “Missiles are not the silver bullet against our common enemies, and that is why we ask all our friends to change their strategy, because our enemies are united and we must also remain united.”

Volodymyr Zelensky himself is waiting to see. “Today, many media are reporting that we have received authorization to take appropriate measures. But strikes are not carried out with words. Things like this are not announced. The missiles will speak of 'themselves”, he warned in his daily update published on Telegram on Sunday evening.