The fairly calm weather period, with rare exceptions, that France has experienced since the beginning of November will come to an end. From Sunday, the weather will gradually become more and more unsettled in the north of the country. Then the whole of next week should be hectic.
Météo France warns that a “change is looming”. “Much more unsettled weather is expected with more frequent and more marked precipitation, the return of snow in the mountains at low altitude and a much windier atmosphere. Temperatures will continue to drop during the week and will take on a more wintry character,” develops the meteorological organization.
The country will therefore be exposed to a succession of disrupted events: rain, wind, snow and winter temperatures. The weather channel thus summarizes the situation in broad terms from day to day: wind and rain Monday in the North and the arrival of snow in the Alps, then a series of rainy, snowy and windy episodes over the days, Thursday ahead to be the most exposed day across the whole of France.
This situation is due to the movement of the anticyclone which protected the country from disturbances. It returns to the direction of the Atlantic and will no longer cover French territory. This allows wind and disturbances from the ocean to return. With a prevailing wind from the northwest, it is even air of polar origin that will descend on France from the middle of the week.
The period from Wednesday to Friday would see very low temperatures for the season in the north of the country. The low point would be reached on Thursday with values between 0 and 5°C. This would generally correspond to a deficit of 7°C to 9°C compared to seasonal averages. The maximums would be consistent with what can be expected in mid-winter on average.
Disturbances and drop in temperatures will also be conducive to snowfall. These should be significant in all massifs throughout the week. The rain-snow limit could be at low altitude. Several tens of centimeters of snow could accumulate at medium altitude, as anticipated for example by the American GFS model. Furthermore, it is possible that snow will fall on the plains on Thursday in the north of the country. But this scenario, the probability of which is increasing, remains to be refined.
Even Mediterranean regions are exposed
From Monday, at least a gale, or even a storm, will affect the coasts of the north of the country and Hauts-de-France. As the day goes on, the gusts will strengthen and reach at least 70 km/h in the evening. Gradually, the strong wind will reach the northern half of the country then almost all of France. Tuesday afternoon it could reach, in gusts, at least 50 km/h-60 km/h in all regions. It would blow even harder in Hauts-de-France with a speed close to 90 km/h near the coast, or even a little more.
Under these conditions, Monday would appear to be the calmest day in the entire country. Bad weather would be confined to the northernmost regions. On other days, precipitation will affect all regions. The shores of the Mediterranean would only partly remain away from showers.
The situation could calm down a little on Friday before the arrival of more almost widespread rain during the weekend. But this situation remains to be confirmed. Temperatures would begin to rise sharply to return to seasonal levels, or even exceed them. Sunday November 24th it could be 10°C warmer in the north of France compared to Friday the 22nd.
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