Thursday’s NBA slate only features one game, but offers some exciting player prop opportunities. Luka Doncic and John Collins headline my picks, with both players facing favorable matchups that highlight their strengths. Let’s dive into why Doncic’s triple-double potential against the Jazz and Collins’ double-double opportunity vs. the Mavericks could deliver value tonight.
Jazz C John Collins Double-Double vs. Mavericks (-115, FanDuel)
With Walker Kessler (hip) out and Taylor Hendricks (leg) out for the season, Collins will be thrust into the starting lineup again for the Jazz, just like last game when he went 12-of-19 shooting for 29 points and 10 rebounds (on 18 rebounding chances) in 34 minutes against the Suns. He’s recorded a double-double in three of his last four games, two of which came off the bench, and his size will be needed against the big man duo of Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II. Both Gafford and Lively don’t stretch the floor, which should keep Collins around the paint, and seven of eight starting centers to play 25 or more minutes against Dallas have recorded a double-double this season. When playing 28-plus minutes this season, Collins has gone 4-0 on double-doubles and has gone 7-0 on his last seven such games with that playing time dating back to the end of last season. The Jazz have allowed 17.2 rebounds per game to opposing centers, 4th-most in the NBA.
Overall, Collins has had a double-double in eight of his last 10 games played without Kessler active and I’m not concerned with his ability to score in double-digits whatsoever; he averages 17.1 points per game, including 10.2 points in the paint per contest (Utah has allowed the most second-chance points in the NBA at 18.1) and has created 40.7% of his made two-point fied goals without an assist from his teammate, most of his career by 13 percentage points. Will Hardy has seemingly given him the green light to create on the offensive end and based on the bump in minutes he should see tonight, he has a great chance to record double-digit rebounds as well to win us this bet.
Mavericks PG Luka Doncic Triple-Double vs. Jazz (+450, DraftKings)
The Jazz have allowed the most points off turnovers (23.5) and fast-break points per game (20.5). The Mavs rank 8th in the NBA in fast break scoring (17.1) and 5th in fast break efficiency and Doncic should be able to find his teammates in transition and rack up dimes with ease in this matchup. The first time he played Utah this year, he uncharacteristically struggled from the field, going 5-of-22 shooting for 15 points with nine rebounds (on 15 chances) and eight assists (on 13 potential assists) and has not recorded a single triple-double yet this season, which is why we’re getting such a great buy-low price.
Keep in mind that Doncic’s points prop is 28.5 and his rebound and assist props are both 8.5. Averaging 28.5 points, 8.1 rebounds (on 13.9 chances) and 7.9 assists (on 14.2 potential assists), it’s only a matter of time for him to start stringing together triple-doubles like we’re used to seeing from him. He recorded triple-doubles in two of his last five meetings against Utah and these +450 odds have a 18.2% implied probability of hitting. After hitting Yves Missi’s double-double last night (+950), let’s win a slightly more conservative combo play tonight.
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