The UEFA Nations League is now an established tournament in the minds and eyes of the football-watching public — even if it’s yet to truly gain a prestigious reputation.
It will never rival the FIFA World Cup or European Championship, but the Nations League — both the UEFA version and the CONCACAF tournament — is now a trophy that countries actively want to win, even if just to add a prize to their cabinet.
Now in its fourth iteration, with Portugal, France and Spain winning the previous tournaments, the business end of the 2024/25 UEFA edition is now approaching.
The Sporting News goes through the permutations for each team, examines England’s hopes of promotion, and looks at how this iteration of the Nations League may conclude.
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UEFA Nations League format 2024/25: How have things changed?
The main change to the UEFA Nations League format for 2024/25 is the introduction of a quarterfinals and playoffs phase that will take place in the March 2025 international break.
The top two from each group in League A will contest two-legged quarterfinals between themselves. In Leagues B, C and D, there’s still just one automatic promotion spot up for grabs. Teams that finish third in League A and League B groups will face runners-up from League B and League C groups respectively in two-legged promotion/relegation playoffs, also in March.
The winners of League D1 and D2 will be automatically promoted to League C, with the two worst last-place teams across the four League C groups relegated. The other last-place League C teams will contest promotion/relegation playoffs with the two League D runners-up.
UEFA Nations League permutations: Who will qualify for the the 2024/25 final?
The league phase for the 2024/25 Nations League will be wrapped up by November 19.
Here are the permutations for each Nations League group ahead of the final matchdays, correct as of Wednesday, November 13. You can see the updated group tables here.
League A
In Group 1, Portugal are in pole position for the quarterfinals and would have to lose both their remaining matches by a significant margin not to qualify. Second place is currently Croatiawho will be through if they beat Scotland, with Steve Clarke’s side rock bottom and facing likely relegation to League B. Poland are facing a relegation playoff unless they accrue serious points.
Group 2 looks like a foregone conclusion with Italy and France advancing to the quarterfinals. Neither can be relegated automatically with Israel bottom and without a single point. The best Israel can do would be to climb up to third, which is currently occupied by Belgiumwho are five points off second.
Germany have already qualified for the quarterfinals as they sit on 10 points after four games in Group 3. Netherlands and Hungary are locked on five points, competing for the other quarterfinal spot and looking to avoid relegation. They face off in a vital game on Saturday, with the winner likely to secure second. Bosnia and Herzegovina are bottom and must win both their remaining games to avoid relegation.
Spain are the only other team to have secured a quarterfinal spot, also sitting on 10 points in Group 4. Switzerland cannot reach the quarterfinals and will likely be relegated, as they are three points behind Serbia and six off Denmark.
Teams qualified for UEFA Nations League quarterfinals 2024/25
League B
Group B1 is wide open, with Czechia, Georgia, Albania and Ukraine all still in with a shot at promotion with two games left — but also at risk of relegation.
Greece are in charge of Group B2 on maximum points (12) after four games, with England needing to beat them on Thursday to have any hope of automatic promotion. Finland haven’t picked up a point yet and are favourites to drop down. Republic of Ireland are third.
In Group 3, three teams — Norway, Austria and Slovenia — are all level on seven points. It looks likely that Kazakhstan will be relegated, as they need to win their final two games and overhaul a big swing in goal difference while doing so.
Turkey are assured of a spot in the promotion playoffs in Group 4. Behind them sit Wales, Iceland and Montenegro. The latter are pointless and can only reach relegation playoffs, at best, but can still (and may well) be relegated automatically.
League C
In Group C1, both Sweden and Slovakia are assured of at least a promotion playoff spot. The two will meet each other on Saturday in a key clash; if Sweden win, they’ll surely finish top because of their goal difference. Azerbaijan cannot be promoted, having lost all four games, and neither can Estonia.
In Group 2, Romania are on maximum points and look favourites to go up. They and Kosovo are both guaranteed a top-two berth. Neither Cyprus nor Lithuania can be promoted.
Group 3 is fairly open, with Northern Ireland, Belarus and Bulgaria all still in contention to get the top automatic promotion spot. Luxembourg could still finish second but are bottom right now and likely to finish third or fourth.
North Macedonia are dominating Group 4 (with 10 points from four games) and need just one more point to guarantee top spot and get promotion. Armenia, Latvia and the Faroe Islands could all still go down.
League D
There are only two groups of three in League D, with Liechtenstein the only team who cannot be promoted automatically. In Group 1, Gibraltar and San Marino are chasing top spot and Malta and Moldova are locked on six points apiece in Group 2, with Andorra without a point so far.
Can England get promoted?
In short, yes — but it won’t be easy. It’s been England’s mission to get promoted back to League A of the Nations League after the disappointment of their 2022/23 campaign when they dropped out of the top tier of the competition.
However, the Three Lions’ unexpected 2-1 home defeat by Greece may cost them dearly. That allowed Greece to continue their perfect record to sit top of Group B2 on 12 points after four games, with England on nine points after the same amount of matches.
To secure automatic promotion, England must now beat Greece in Athens by a couple of goals or more to move top of the group. They must then see off Ireland at Wembley.
If that doesn’t happen, England may well finish second in their group, which will mean a promotion/relegation playoff against one of the third-placed sides in League A. There is also still a chance that England finish as low as third in their group, meaning a playoff against a League C side — and the risk of relegation.
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