After two weeks of anticyclonic weather in the country, with generally very calm weather, the situation will change radically next week with the return of a disturbed flow. The passage of a low pressure minimum for Tuesday should be monitored with the clear strengthening of the wind from the north of France.
Strong agitation on a European scale
After the cold drop passed over the country at the start of the week, conditions remained mainly anticyclonic across the whole of France. Thanks to the anticyclone positioned over the British Isles, the weather has not changed much in our regions for two weeks now, except in the most southern regions.
Active Jet Stream © LCM
This calm configuration will continue until the weekend, before a radical change in weather from Sunday. It is this change in the weather which will continue at the start of next week. Indeed, the anticyclone will retract towards the Atlantic Ocean. This will give way to the low pressure flow which will return to Western Europe in a northwesterly flow, coming directly from Iceland.
The depressions associated with this flow will quickly deepen from Scandinavia to Italy, which will directly influence the weather here. The jet stream will indeed be very dynamic in this northwest flow, which will “boost” the depressions that will pass through it.
Gusts above 100 km/h possible in the northwest
In this unstable maritime flow, the areas most at risk are of course the northwest but more generally the entire northern half between Monday and Wednesday. The most risky day is expected for Tuesday, with the passage over the Benelux of a trough low pressure minimum.
Wind gust risk, METEOCONSULT model © LCM
It is still difficult at present to give a precise forecast on the intensity of the winds. Overall, gusts could be between 70 and 90 km/h, the equivalent of a classic gale during this season. Some models are a little more pessimistic with gusts that could exceed 100 km/h, particularly on the exposed capes of the Channel such as Cap Gris-Nez or Blanc-Nez on the Opal Coast.
These winds could also rush a little further inland and mainly affect the regions of the northern half, with strong gusts heading towards the Vosges massif, sometimes also close to 100 km/h.
Risk of gale force winds, GFS model © LCM
In any case, next week promises to be disrupted both in terms of wind and rain and the snow which promises to be abundant in the mountains, and which could even potentially reach the plains in weekend towards the northeast. Other depressions could thus bring new gales to watch out for until the end of next week.
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