RN trial: Marine Le Pen out of the race for 2027? Will the ex-president of the far-right party soon be ineligible?

The concomitance is disturbing. While Marine Le Pen waits to know the sentence that will be hers in the trial of the RN parliamentary assistants, Jordan Bardella is in full promotion of her book. Tonneins last Sunday, Nice next Saturday… The President of the RN dedicates with all his might. Marine Le Pen does not leave the Paris court where she attended the indictments on Tuesday, November 12. His sentence will be determined on Wednesday November 20 and this could well be accompanied by a “mandatory” ineligibility measure of ten years maximum. While one seems to take flight, the other could see its wings clipped.

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Little risk

The former candidate for the presidential election already saw herself in the second round in 2027. After failing in 2017 then in 2022, she even hoped against a less unifying candidate than Emmanuel Macron to be able to win. A sentence of ineligibility would therefore remove all hope of climbing the steps of the Élysée in 3 years. “Behind (me), there are millions of French people who, in fact, would be deprived of their presidential candidate,” she said angrily at the bar. However, for the decision to truly impact Marine Pen's electoral calendar, the court would have to order the provisional execution of her sentence of ineligibility. In such a case, future legal appeals do not suspend this sentence. Otherwise, until a conviction is final, legal sanctions are not carried out. Suffice it to say that a possible ineligibility sentence definitively pronounced before 2027 seems unlikely. As for his mandate as deputy, it would only be threatened in the event that the court ordered the provisional execution of his sentence of ineligibility.

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Victimization strategy

There is very little risk of this being the case because the court would then be immediately accused by the voters of the three-time candidate, quick to think that justice is acquired by the power in place, of wanting to silence a troublesome opponent. If Marine Le Pen brandishes the threat it is certainly to protect herself but above all because she knows that the strategy of victimization has always succeeded for her. The more traditional parties attack it, the more support it gains. Instead of harming her, this trial could therefore help her in her conquest of power.

A ticket with Bardella

And even if Marine Le Pen were made ineligible, her political journey would not end on Wednesday. The former presidential candidate announced a few months ago that she could run on a ticket with the current boss of the RN. She then thought of running for the Élysée and Jordan Bardella Matignon. But the opposite would also be possible. “Today I am the natural candidate for my camp, but a presidential path requires several elements, including the desire and the ability to be one. And I know how political life can slip you banana skins,” she analyzed recently, seeming to accept the idea of ​​being obliged to pass her turn. But even if she were ineligible, Marine Le Pen would not be prevented from campaigning alongside Jordan Bardella or running for Matignon. This emergency solution would have the advantage of reassuring voters worried by the young age of the RN boss who could find himself confined to managing foreign policy while Marine Le Pen Prime Minister would be the real captain of national policy. Whatever the court's decision on Wednesday, the road is far from stopping for the three-time candidate in the presidential election.