The 2024 ATP Tour comes to an end with the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin, Italy. Eight of the best players in the world are battling for the last big trophy — and paycheck — of the year, as Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev, Taylor Fritz, Casper Ruud, Alex de Minaur and Andrey Rublev are all in this competition. That list does exclude Novak Djokovic, who is taking time off to heal up and get ready for the 2025 Australian Open. But this is still a loaded field, so there will be a bunch of good matches. That said, I’m going to handicap the action daily. With that out of the way, keep reading for two best bets for Wednesday, November 13th.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 841-827 (+34.98 units)
Andrey Rublev vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Alcaraz was a -385 favorite to beat Rublev as recently as yesterday. However, news came out that Alcaraz had to end a practice session due to the illness he was dealing with when he lost as a -1700 favorite against Ruud to start group play. Alcaraz was apparently having some trouble breathing, but it was reported that he will try and play in this match. And I’ll be honest, all of the news makes me like the Spaniard even more here.
There’s a lot working against Alcaraz, as he’s sick, doesn’t like indoor hard courts and is also in the middle of a change to his backhand. Despite all of that, he’s a much better player than Rublev, and he even beat him 7-5, 6-2 when they met in this exact venue last year. Alcaraz has only gotten better since then, and the same can’t be said about Rublev. So, even with Alcaraz playing his C+ game, I’d expect him to beat Rublev.
Another wrinkle when looking at this is that Alcaraz could just retire if he goes down early in this match. So, depending on what sportsbook you’re using, you might be getting something of a free roll here. If he wins, he wins. If he senses himself struggling and doesn’t want to battle through the illness, perhaps he bows out and lets one of the alternates finish the tournament. In that case, most sportsbooks will refund you as long as they don’t finish the first set. But you can also play this at Caesars Sportsbook. Alcaraz is -190 there and they require the match to be finished to declare a winner.
Overall, I just like to bet based on talent and numbers. And according to TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations, Alcaraz’s Shot Quality is higher than Rublev’s when it comes to forehands and backhands. He also has a much higher score as a returner, and his conversation rates and steal percentages are much higher. There simply isn’t much that Rublev does at a better level than Alcaraz. The only thing you might be able to say is that his serve is a bit better on hard courts. But even that is a stretch. I personally prefer the Alcaraz serve, especially if he’s coming to the net for some serve-and-volley action. He might look to do that to quicken the points here.
Bet: Alcaraz ML (-182)
Casper Ruud vs. Alexander Zverev
Ruud’s win over Alcaraz is being questioned because of the Spaniard’s illness. But the Norwegian also happened to make 68.0% of his first serves. Doing that on these lightning-quick surfaces will give you a chance against anyone. And Zverev isn’t nearly as good as a returner as Alcaraz is. So, if Ruud is hitting his spots, he’s going to rack up holds and put a nice dent in the scoreboard. That’s a big reason I like him to go Over 8.5 games in this match.
Ruud was struggling coming into this tournament, while Zverev won a 1000-level title in Bercy a few weeks ago. So, people are understandably down on Ruud and high on Zverev. But perhaps we should throw out the last couple of weeks. Ruud has always performed at a high level at the ATP Finals, where he is 5-3 in his career. The indoor hard courts make him a little more dangerous than usual as a server, and he clearly trusts his game against the best players in the world. Confidence is key at this time of the year. And his confidence is probably at an all-time high after his first win over Alcaraz.
Ruud also happened to beat Zverev the last time they met on hard courts, as he beat him in Miami in 2022. He also won nine games against Zverev on indoor hard courts when they met in Paris two years ago. That’s all we need from him here.
On top of that, Ruud’s big topspin forehand could test Zverev’s shaky forehand. That thing jumps off the court and makes it hard to get a good read on where it’s going, so Zverev might not be able to take his time to load up and hit it. Ruud just needs to find a way to hold his own in backhand-to-backhand exchanges, as Zverev has one of the best backhands in the world. But if Ruud is controlling points from the forehand side, he should be able to avoid those as much as possible.
Realistically, I just don’t see any reason Ruud can’t force a tiebreaker, or even win one. That would put this Over in play with a mediocre performance in the other set.
Bet: Ruud Over 8.5 Games Won (-125)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action. That’s also where I put my Challenger-level plays, as well as picks for lower level ATP and WTA events.
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