Health care reform Efas and motorway expansion facing an uncertain outcome

Since taking office at the beginning of 2023, Federal Councilor Albert Rösti has always clearly won his votes. He was able to convince a comfortable majority of the electorate of his stance on both the Climate Protection Act, the Electricity Act and the Biodiversity Initiative. A victory for the SVP magistrate also seemed to be on the cards on November 24th. In Switzerland, a country of cars, the national roads are the backbone of mobility. The selective expansion of six particularly sensitive sections should find a majority.

But that is anything but certain, as a new survey by GfS Bern on behalf of SRG shows. A majority of 51 percent of those surveyed spoke out against the “2023 expansion step”. Only 47 percent support the Federal Council’s proposal. The survey was carried out from October 28th to November 7th.

For Transport Minister Rösti and the business associations Economiesuisse and the trade association, the initial situation has worsened again. In the first SRG trend survey at the beginning of October, a narrow majority of 51 percent were in favor of motorway expansion.

According to Lukas Golder, co-director of GfS Bern, the critical attitude of the media towards motorway expansion has led to the no trend. In recent weeks, there have been increasing reports questioning whether the six motorway projects would actually result in lasting relief on the roads. The assumption was also expressed that the federal government’s construction projects could cost significantly more than 5 billion francs and that an increase in the price of gasoline could also be necessary.

The Federal Council’s arguments do not work

“When it comes to government proposals, it is unusual for the Federal Council’s arguments to be met with so much skepticism,” says pollster Golder. This shows that the associations that took the referendum against the expansion step did a good job in their campaign. Conversely, government trust is currently lower than during the entire Covid period. “The position against the Federal Council is easier than usual in this environment.”

According to the political scientist, it is noteworthy that the motorway expansion is also met with majority rejection in rural areas. “The prevailing attitude is that the motorway expansions will not improve our own traffic situation. In return, the loss of land associated with the construction of the roads is given greater weight.” In the first SRG survey at the beginning of October, a clear majority in rural areas were in favor of road expansion.

According to Golder, the outcome of the vote is still open. «The current “no” trend is only very weak. In the end, the decisive factor for the outcome of the vote will be which side is better at mobilizing voters.” Since the Federal Council and individual parliamentarians are heavily involved in the voting campaign, it is quite possible that there will still be a yes vote in the end.

The population in French-speaking Switzerland in particular does not want to rely on more concrete in road construction: only 42 percent of those surveyed there support the proposal. The subsequent integration of an expansion of the A 1 between Le Vengeron and Nyon into the proposal by Parliament apparently did not result in winning the favor of the majority of the population.

Rösti’s proposal is receiving the most support not from his own party, but from the FDP. More than four out of five party supporters want to vote yes. The SVP clientele is less united behind their Federal Council. Golder attributes this to the fact that there is a counter-public in the farming environment: “The scars that, from the perspective of many farmers, the highways have torn through the productive fields in the Mittelland have not healed to this day.”

Women are also particularly critical. If the proposal had been voted on these days, 60 percent would have voted no. The majority of men, on the other hand, still support the expansion of the motorway. The elimination of bottlenecks on national roads is also supported by people with higher incomes. The lower the household income, the less support the bill enjoys.

Things are also getting tight for the Efas health reform

The major healthcare reform called Efas could also be tighter than expected. The question is whether the cantons and health insurance companies should uniformly finance both outpatient treatment and inpatient procedures in hospitals in the future.

Practically all players in the healthcare system, from doctors to hospitals and nursing homes to health insurance companies, are in favor of the reform. Likewise all bourgeois parties. The SP has adopted the no slogan, but numerous left-wing health politicians are also calling for a yes vote. The Greens have decided to release votes.

Accordingly, the voting campaign seemed to be going well for supporters: in the first SRG survey in October, only 26 percent of respondents said they would reject the proposal. But now the No camp has grown significantly, to 37 percent. This trend is likely to make Efas advocates nervous. Skepticism is particularly high in French-speaking Switzerland. Because of the complexity of the reform, the proportion of undecided people is higher than on the other issues that will be voted on on November 24th.

Unions say Efas has numerous negative impacts. Premiums would rise because health insurance companies would have to finance a larger share of long-term care in the future. There is also more cost pressure in nursing homes, which affects employees. And the cash registers would have more power; they would take over the control of the health system.

Although the claims are met with strong opposition in the healthcare industry, they still seem to be convincing a growing portion of the population. Nevertheless, political scientist Golder still believes a yes to Efas is the more likely outcome. “There is a trend towards no, but the arguments of the supporters are more present in the media than those of the opponents – that is completely different when it comes to motorway expansion.” The strong commitment of Health Minister Elisabeth Baume-Schneider also speaks for a yes.

Tenancy law proposals are in danger of failing

Voting Sunday could be uncomfortable for the homeowners association. Because with both templates on tenancy law it looks more like a no. The change in the law, which is intended to tighten the rules for subletting, still has 50 percent approval, but with a clearly negative trend. The proponents’ main argument, that the innovation prevents abuse in commercial subletting, is significantly less effective than it was a few weeks ago.

Things look even worse for the template, which is intended to lower the hurdle for the buyer to terminate the rental agreement if the property is urgently needed. The resistance to this project is particularly strong among young people, city dwellers and French-speaking Swiss.