Understanding everything about the COP, in 4 points

Every year it starts again. The 29^e Conference of the Parties (COP) on climate is being held in Baku, Azerbaijan from Monday 11 until November 22. Objective: negotiate on the means to be deployed to combat climate change and verify their implementation. Our reporter Emmanuel Clévenot, who left by train to Baku, will tell you about the issues and discussions of the COP29. Waiting for, Reporterre explains to you what these great masses on the climate consist of.

How were the COP ?

If the link between emissions of CO₂ and global warming was established in 1896 by Nobel chemist Svante Arrhenius, it was not until the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 that 196 States adopted the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (CCNUCC). For the first time, almost all states on the planet recognized the existence of human-caused climate change and promised to stabilize their greenhouse gas emissions at a level that « prevents dangerous anthropogenic disruption of the climate system ». That is to say, not modifying the global climate to the point of making it dangerous for present and future generations.

The text provides for differentiated responsibility between States, urging historic polluters to make more efforts than developing countries. To do this, the Framework Convention established Conferences of the Parties which are held each year in a different country. In 1995, the first COP was organized in Berlin.

In addition to the COP dedicated to the climate, two others COP emerged from the Earth Summit: the Convention on Biological Diversity, the sixteenth edition of which has just ended in Cali, Colombia, and the Convention to Combat Desertification.

Who participates in COP ?

THE COP bring together representatives of the 196 States and the European Union, signatories to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. To this must be added myriads of lobbyists, diplomats, scientists, non-governmental organizations, indigenous peoples and journalists. Each year, the number of participants increases: 10,000 in 1997 to adopt the Kyoto protocol, more than 30,000 at the COP21 in Paris in 2015 and 85,000 last year at the COP28 in Dubai.

How do the COP ?

The objective of COP is to strengthen the commitments made by States in climate matters to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as well as to evaluate the climate actions of each country. During the two weeks, the days are punctuated by negotiation sessions, meetings organized with civil society such as ONG or even thematic conferences on the sidelines. Each time, the negotiations take place at the end of the COPafter long nights of debate between the different parties trying to reach an agreement.

Because decisions are made by consensus. If only the States decide, the ONG and the lobbies each try to influence the debates. For example, during the COP28 in Dubai, the countries most involved in the fight for the climate, helped by ONGmanaged to obtain for the first time an agreement which calls for a « transition away from fossil fuels ». But for the oil states to accept the agreement, a convoluted formula which specifies neither the date of exit from fossil fuels, nor any obligation, was found.

THE COP do they serve any purpose? ?

Several COP have enabled progress on the climate crisis front. In 1997, the COP3 in Japan led to the Kyoto Protocol, the first legally binding treaty. It aimed to reduce by at least 5 % greenhouse gas emissions of 55 industrialized countries between 2008 and 2012 compared to the 1990 level. If the United States never ratified the agreement and China was then considered developing and therefore not concerned, milestones have been laid.

Often considered a failure, the COP15 in Copenhagen (Denmark) in 2009 was however the first to set the warming level of 2°C above the pre-industrial period (1850-1900) as a threshold not to be crossed.

Finally the COP21 in 2015 in Paris went further by leading to the first international treaty to reduce emissions, committing all States to contain global warming well below 2°C and if possible to 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial era. The treaty also stipulates that carbon neutrality must be achieved in the second half of the century.

Why are the COP are sometimes criticized ?

During the COPthe balance of power between polluting industries and ONG is very unbalanced. For example, in Dubai last year, nearly 2,500 fossil fuel lobbyists were accredited. A record. « While polluting industries — which are the very source of the climate crisis — sit at the negotiating table, governments make it increasingly difficult for civil society to participate in discussions: it is difficult to obtain visas, access to spaces and decision-making are reduced »lamented Rachel Rose Jackson, of theONG Corporate Accountability, with Reporterre.

Furthermore, the COP did not prevent the emissions of CO₂ to continue to increase in the world: in 2023, they reached 36.8 billion tonnes, an increase of 1.1 % compared to 2022. The European Copernicus Institute announced Thursday November 7 that it is now « almost certain » that in 2024, the bar for warming of more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial period has been reached. The chances of achieving the goals contained in the Paris Agreement seem impossible.

The reason: if the commitments of States seem ambitious, they are not sufficient. L'HIM indicated that the commitments made by States would lead to « 66 % chance of limiting warming to around 2.6°C by the end of the century ». Furthermore, it is then up to States to take over their commitments at the level of their national legislation.

So what's the point of continuing? ? For their defenders, the COP at least have the merit of existing. Whether to enable the construction of common rules, maintain pressure on States, encourage the exchange of information or stimulate the mobilization of civil society, the COP are part of the tools to fight against climate change. Asked about the subject by Reporterre in 2021, François Gemene explained that « THE COP cannot solve everything: they are only discussion forums between governments, which try to organize international cooperation. But in the end, it all depends on governments ».