Messi’s Playoff Defeat Is An Upset Of MLS, Apple TV’s Own Making

When Major League Soccer first introduced its cumbersome new MLS Cup Playoff format, the league insisted one of the benefits would be that it placed a greater importance on regular season order of finish.

The league had run simulations, it insisted, that showed playing a best-of-three Round One series was more likely to favor the higher seed than a single-elimination game played at the higher-seeded team’s stadium.

The math always seemed sketchy, considering the new format also removed extra time and mandated that every match tied after 90 minutes be decided on penalties.

But even if it was true, it was clearly an ancillary reason for the change. The primary driver was money of course, in particular giving 16 owners ticket revenue from at least one home playoff game each season, and giving Apple TV between 25 and 33 playoff games annually to market for its MLS Season Pass subscriptions service (up from only 13 in the previous format.)

Fast forward 21 months and it turns out Apple TV and MLS have sacrificed the forest for the trees. Because when the playoffs continue later this month, they’ll do so without Lionel Messi and Inter Miami, exactly because of the new format they introduced.

Messi and Miami were defeated at home 3-2 by Atlanta United on Saturday night in what was arguably the biggest upset in MLS Cup history.

The Herons entered the match as roughly 1-to-3 favorites on the money line, according to bookmakers, and could’ve also advanced with a draw via penalties. And yet the combination of Brad Guzan’s exceptional goalkeeping, a devastating three-minute stretch from Atlanta forward Jamal Thiare, and one of the more controversial matchwinners in league history gave Atlanta a spot in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

If this had been 2022, Miami would’ve already had a bye those semis as the top seed. And if MLS had merely expanded the playoffs but kept the single-elimination format, Miami would’ve advanced via their 2-1 win in the series opener.

Instead, the league’’s continuous pursuit of competitive structures that prioritize revenue over integrity have ended up hurting both ends of the equation. And just maybe that’s the overarching lesson commissioner Don Garber, his owners and Apple TV should learn from this underwhelming season.

Messi’s playoff exit isn’t the only example. Last winter, the league’s attempt to jettison its U.S. Open Cup commitments resulted in a needless black eye in the press and with its own fans.

And its continued insistence to play the Leagues Cup as a month-long tournament in late-July through late-August forced MLS to play its heaviest June schedule in recent memory in the near anonymity of the shadow cast by the 2024 Copa America.

Maybe neither of those episodes don’t have a large measurable impact on the short-term bottom line. But if the goal for owners is anything other than to artificially inflate the value of their own clubs and sell them at the peak of 2026 World Cup fever, they were flummoxing decisions in terms of long-term health.

To MLS’ credit, there appears to be recognition that this method of decision-making is backfiring. The potential adaptation of a fall-to-spring schedule after the 2026 World Cup — which could damage ticket revenues but create a far better product — is a positive development. So is the consideration of a Leagues Cup in the model of the UEFA Champions League, among others.

That’a all for the future though. For now, 2024 will be the year that MLS and Apple TV did everything they could to make the MLS regular season less relevant, only for Messi and Miami to do their best work in the competition MLS cared about least.