Inter Miami vs. Atlanta United FC odds, picks and predictions

Inter Miami welcomes Atlanta United FC to Chase Stadium Saturday for the finale of their best-of-3 first-round playoff series. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET (Apple TV). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s Soccer odds around the Inter Miami vs. Atlanta United FC oddsand make our best MLS picks and predictions.

Inter Miami had been the hottest team in MLS down the home stretch of the regular season, winning 8 of its last 11 games and drawing the other 3. Inter beat Atlanta 2-1 Oct. 25 in the series opener, ending with 2.3 more expected goals. Finishing the season atop the Eastern Conference, Inter was 11-4-2 at home and has a +30 goal differential. It won the Supporters’ Shield as well. Miami is led by superstar F Lionel Messiwho has netted 20 goals this season.

Atlanta United struggled throughout the last several weeks of the regular season, going 2-3-2. United did take down CF Montreal in a wild card game, though, drawing 2-2 in regulation then winning 5-4 in penalty kicks in the road match. It then lost to Miami 3 days later and rebounded by pulling off a surprise upset and beating Inter 2-1 at home Nov. 2. Atlanta was 4-6-7 on the road during the regular season and ended with a -3 goal differential.

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Inter Miami vs. Atlanta United FC odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of soccer odds. Lines last updated at 1:30 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Inter Miami -275 (bet $275 to win $100) | Atlanta United FC +575 (bet $100 to win $575) | Draw +425
• Over/Under: 3.5 (O: -130 | U: -110)

Inter Miami vs. Atlanta United FC picks and predictions

Prediction

Inter Miami 2, Atlanta United FC 1

Moneyline (ML)

PASS.

There’s zero value here. Miami is the much sharper and more tactically sound team, but it isn’t worth a play at nearly 3 times your money for a unit of return. Avoid any Atlanta play, either, as Miami has been just too good at home.

United hasn’t necessarily shown any ability to win on the road. Just 4 of its last 17 road matches have ended in an Atlanta win, and it will be playing the best team in MLS Saturday. Atlanta isn’t even worth a play for a draw, as it had 2.3 fewer expected goals in the series opener.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET UNDER 3.5 (-110).

Inter’s offense has been the best in the Eastern Conference, but it hasn’t necessarily exploded for some time. It has scored 3 or more goals in just 2 of its last 8 matches and has had 1.5 or fewer expected goals in 4 of its last 7.

Miami’s defense has stepped up as well and hasn’t allowed more than 2 goals since a July match with FC Cincinnati.

For United, it didn’t necessarily have a dynamic offense during the regular season, scoring 1.35 goals per game. It didn’t have a single player score double-digit goals. At the same time, United hasn’t given up more than 2 goals in an MLS match since July 6.

Considering how the defenses have stepped up as of late, back UNDER 3.5 (-110).

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