Having enjoyed a five-shot advantage, now it is but one, with Niklas Norgaard (69) the English journeyman’s nearest pursuer.
Norgaard, the late-developing 32-year-old Dane, who is attracting increasing attention as a Ryder Cup possibility, could himself provide a challenge to McIlroy, if he were to win and the world No 3 were to finish far enough down the field. However, McIlroy’s eyes will be trained most intently on Fleetwood, who was the Race to Dubai champion in 2017.
Fleetwood insists he has not looked at the permutations and will only do so if collects silverware and the £1.2 million cheque on Sunday.
Yet if he prevails and McIlroy does not advance from his current position of tied 13th, then the world No 10 would hurtle to within 1200 points and with 2000 on offer to the winner at the Earth Course next Sunday, it would suddenly all be up for grabs.
Fleetwood’s home comforts
“I’ll take your word for it and it is not even wise from ruling out Rory winning here,” Fleetwood said, after a 71 took him to 15-under and into a group sharing third, also including Shane Lowry (66). “But yeah, just to have a chance going into the DP World Tour Championship would be great.
“You know, there was a run of years there, from 2017 through ‘19, that each time I went to the finale with the opportunity. I can’t do any more than go win-win and see where it left me. But it’ll be difficult enough to win this one.”
He can take inspiration from his victory in the Dubai Invitational in January – when a certain golfer by the name of Rory came second – and, naturally, from his two wins in this tournament when it was held at the start of the year and staged at Abu Dhabi Golf Club, 10 miles across town.
“I suppose I do have a comfort factor here in the UAE,” Fleetwood said. “We live in Dubai now and I can go home tonight and sleep in my own bed. That’s always nice.”
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