Of all the surprises that punctuated this crazy election night, two must be remembered. First, the fact that Donald Trump obtained the popular vote – a first for a Republican since George W. Bush, twenty years ago. And, then, the score achieved by Donald Trump in fringes of the electorate hitherto considered to be the preserve of the Democrats.
© / L’Express
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“Donald Trump has made enormous progress among black and Latino voters, particularly those in the working class, confirms Julian Zelizer, professor of political history at Princeton University. This growth further broadens the MAGA coalition (Make America Great Again) and could even continue to develop in the future.” The billionaire also congratulated himself. “No one has ever seen anything like this, he said on the evening of his victory . Union members or not, African-Americans, Hispanic-Americans, Asians, Arabs, Muslims, everyone was there, it was magnificent.” If, in reality, he did not obtain the majority of votes from all the minorities, the Republican can however boast of having greatly improved his rating since the previous election.
The economy, a major subject
According to exit polls, Donald Trump doubled his score among African-American men by winning 24% of their votes nationally, compared to 12% in 2020. In the key state of Wisconsin – lost by Kamala Harris but won by Joe Biden in 2020 – the Republican candidate increased by 14 points within this category to reach 22%. The warnings made by certain Democratic leaders were not enough to change the situation. During a meeting in Pennsylvania on October 10, Barack Obama criticized black men for finding “all kinds of reasons and excuses” for not supporting the election of a woman to the presidency. In this same state, Donald Trump finally attracted 26% of their votes less than a month later.
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This is not his only breakthrough in the Democratic fold. Among Latino voters, the billionaire's score was even more impressive. The ex-president thus managed to bring together 47% of men in this group behind his candidacy, compared to 38% in 2020. “Donald Trump's campaign was able to attract enough traditionally Democratic voters to make a difference in virtually all key states, observes Filippo Trevisan, professor of public communications at American University in Washington. This result shows us the difficulty the Democratic Party has had in connecting with certain minorities and making real changes in. their life.” In fact, the economy emerged throughout the campaign as the main concern of American voters.
According to a Gallup poll released in October, it ranked at the top of the 22 issues that voters said would most influence their choice for president, being considered “extremely important” by 52% of voters. . A factor which strongly favored the Republican to the extent that, again according to Gallup, 54% of voters considered him more capable of managing the economy than Kamala Harris (45%). The cause: inflation, the rate of which reached a peak of 9.1% in 2022 and has lastingly tarnished the image of the administration in place. “It would be wrong to believe that identity issues do not matter to members of minorities, but that does not mean that it is the only thing that matters to them,” continues Filippo Trevisan. Succeeding in paying your bills and making work pay seem to have become the most pressing problem for many people.”
Preservative fiber
Unlike the “autopsy report” carried out by Republicans after Mitt Romney's defeat in 2012, which called on the party to adopt a softer tone on immigration and more inclusion towards minorities , Donald Trump has achieved the feat of increasing his support among them despite his numerous racist remarks – such as those on “shithole countries”, the “Muslim Ban” or, more recently, the Haitian migrants who would “eat the pets” of Americans. “Far-right strategists like Steve Bannon have argued that 'inclusive nationalism' based on populism like 'America first'could appeal to some people of color”, underlines Daniel Martinez HoSang, professor of American studies at Yale, in a recent study. Donald Trump's results during the last election seem to prove them right.
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In June, a survey published by the Pew Research Center, when Joe Biden was still the Democratic candidate, showed a tendency among African-American voters, and to a lesser extent Hispanics, to be more conservative in terms of values than other groups. Around a third of black voters who supported Joe Biden, and 15% of Latinos, said that the government should support religious values, compared to only 7% of whites. Similarly, 53% of African Americans identifying as Democrats and 28% of Hispanics believed “belief in God” was necessary for morality, compared to 8% of whites. On the question of gender, nearly two-thirds of Joe Biden's black voters (64%) and 46% of Latinos also affirmed that it was determined by the sex assigned at birth, compared to 32% of white supporters of Joe Biden. the current tenant of the White House.
Beyond the minority vote, Donald Trump also achieved a more than honorable score in the category of young voters – 18 to 29 years old – by collecting 46% of the votes, compared to 36% four years earlier. Here again, a dead loss for the Democrats, of whom they usually constitute one of the electoral strongholds. “There is a frustration among young people with regard to the political system which has often failed to produce results, and Donald Trump was able to seduce them by appearing as an anti-establishment and anti-institution candidate, gauges Julian Zelizer. Ironically , the candidate whose identity reflected the most radical change failed against an older, white man.”
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At the end of this lost election, the question of what comes next now arises for Democratic strategists. “Since Obama's campaign in 2008, the Democratic Party had focused on investing in an identity policy aimed at ensuring that all minorities feel represented within it, points out Filippo Trevisan. But the question of employment and a future that can work for all – which have been further pushed aside – are two issues that Democrats will have to think about very seriously.” At the risk of facing another disappointment during the mid-terms of 2026.
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