US election 2024: Trump wins – concerns about democracy take a back seat

Donald Trump’s comeback is historic, and for once the word is appropriate. Only one president in US history achieved a similar feat: Democrat Grover Cleveland in 1892. He was the antithesis of Trump, a politician committed to the fight against corruption.

Donald Trump probably didn’t expect this landslide victory four years after he was voted out. In 2020 he left Washington as a pariah, a traitor to American democracy, and now the 78-year-old can look forward to a triumphant return to the White House. He will live again where, on January 6, 2021, he stood idly by for hours as his angry supporters stormed Congress in a collective frenzy of violence.

Apparently, the memory of these events has long since faded for the majority of Americans. The high prices for food and mortgages hit the nerve center more painfully than the political turbulence of yesteryear. The fact that Americans have put January 6th behind them was already evident in the trials against Trump. When Trump stood trial and was convicted in New York, his popularity skyrocketed. His “mug shot” became a well-selling cult object. For his fans, he is not a criminal, but a hero who keeps fighting when others give up.

Favorable conditions for a comeback

The conditions were favorable for Trump to make a comeback. He was able to surf on a global trend: the signs of the times are pointing to the right, and not just in the USA. The uncontrolled migration at the southern border as well as the high inflation of the past few years, but also the wokeness, affect American voters just as they do in Europe.

When it comes to the economy, Trump, the extremely wealthy entrepreneur and business-friendly ex-president, is said to be highly competent, even if many of his recipes – trade tariffs, mass deportations – contradict economic theory. But the proposals definitely come across as a populist message. Citizens in the USA have no savings with which to offset higher living costs – many millions are on the verge of poverty and have to decide whether to buy food or gas. The businessman Donald Trump promised the voters something better – with words that the voters understand.

The issue of migration also plays into Trump’s hands. During his term in office, immigration across the southern border fell noticeably – thanks to his harsh anti-immigration policies. After taking power, President Biden rolled back Trump’s measures, after which irregular migration promptly skyrocketed to record levels. For the first time, undocumented migrants appeared in large numbers in northern cities, inflicting heavy costs on democratic governments there.

Kamala Harris fought against the wind

The starting position for Kamala Harris was difficult. As Vice President, she was unable to credibly distance herself from the mistakes of the Biden administration. Your competitor would have exploited that immediately. After all, she was partly responsible. As is well known, one goes along with oneself.

The Democrats will have to examine the books as to why they were able to achieve such an electoral defeat in 2024. Joe Biden’s failed candidacy was certainly damaging. The blindness with which he and his party fell into the senility trap did not reflect well on the Democrats from the start. Vice President Harris, who was unlikely to win in a regular Democratic primary, jumped into the gap. She only had a good three months to run an election campaign against a strong and well-known candidate.

It was an immense effort, and Harris was able to inspire the base within a very short time and build a coalition with moderate Republicans. She appeared on stage side by side with Liz Cheney; The left-liberal Democrat and the conservative Republican demonstrated that it is possible to respect and perhaps even like each other despite political differences. In this time of hateful ultra-polarization, this created a moment of hope. It didn’t pay off at the ballot box.

But Harris also made some mistakes. A vice president from a swing state like Pennsylvania would probably have served her better than the somewhat provincial-looking Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota. But ultimately Harris simply lacked the Obama momentum to break through the glass ceiling as a woman with Indian-Jamaican roots.

Trump can do anything

Donald Trump, on the other hand, made many missteps, but it didn’t matter. The same laws don’t seem to apply to him as everyone else. In this race, too, he followed his instincts and not his advisors. Instead of sticking to substantive politics and allowing ugly memories of his first term to rest, he turned up the volume.

He rehashed the memories of January 6th and continued to spin the old election fraud lie. After the assassination attempt on him in Butler, Pennsylvania, his performances became increasingly bizarre, his fantasies darker: migrants eating pets, political opponents who had to be persecuted or even executed.

Autocratic desires for omnipotence were mixed with obscenity. The suggested fellatio with a microphone must have been too much even for loyal followers. But nothing sticks with Trump. What’s more, he was able to mobilize a group of voters who rarely come out from behind the computer: young men of all stripes.

It is paying off for the Republicans to renew their pact with Trump despite what happened on January 6, 2021. The calculation worked out. With Trump in tow, they regained power in the Senate and can hope to retain the majority in the House of Representatives.

The Republicans are therefore very happy. With Trump in the White House, they can hope to pass a second tax package, reverse Democratic regulations and stimulate economic growth.

Trump’s character is unpredictable

But Donald Trump’s reconquista in Washington will exact the price of instability. Trump can develop a destructive force in the Oval Office. He wants to drastically reduce the size of the civil service and fill it with favorites. Elon Musk should help him with this, obvious conflicts of interest or not. One can hope that this turns out well and that the state remains functional.

In his autocratic moments, Trump has promised to send the military on the civilian population, something the posse comitatus principle in the US strictly prohibits. He wants to use the Justice Department to target political opponents. He wants to fire rockets into Mexico to fight drug cartels and to stop the war in Ukraine he wants to make a deal with Putin. He wants to dictate the key interest rate to the American central bank, the Fed. Trump has big plans – and in his first term he has proven that he follows through on his promises when he can. This time he can count on the help of the numerous loyalists in Congress.

Of course: The checks and balances in the American Constitution also apply to Trump. The possibility remains that he will fuss over it and wreak havoc in Washington and on the global stage. He recently said he would have been better off never leaving the White House. Americans’ bet on a second Trump term is highly risky. Because his character is unpredictable.