Donald Trump, November 6, 2024. CHIP SOMODEVILLA / GETTY IMAGES VIA AFP
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Decryption Political archaeologists are only just taking their first steps. We will have to examine thousands of data and results to establish an exact map of the election of Donald Trump. But already, five decisive factors are emerging.
He's back. On Wednesday, November 6, Donald Trump succeeded in his challenge to return to the White House, thanks to a clear victory which caused a shock wave and plunged the United States and the world into uncertainty. How to explain this « come-back » ? Five keys to seeing things more clearly.
1. “Bring out the leavers!” »
We forget it a little quickly, but the disengagement was also what caused Trump's defeat in 2020: the Americans had rejected an unpopular president, as they did in 2024 – not Biden, who was not good of course not a candidate, but his vice-president, Kamala Harris, who could not distance herself too much from an unpopular boss, at the risk of alienating a significant number of Democratic voters.
In many respects, this “Trump, the return”, is first and foremost a “Democrats, this way the exit”, in continuity with the elections which preceded this one. Ahead of the election, less than 30% of Americans believed that the country was on the right track; no party has retained the White House or won the popular vote with such a poor score. And no party won the election (or the popular vote) when the incumbent's approval rating was around 40%, as was the case for Biden…
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