In Morocco, the welcomed return to power of “ally” Donald Trump

« Donald Trump, the president who recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over the Sahara [occidental], announces his return to the White House “. Like the online newspaper Le360known to be close to the royal palace, the Moroccan press widely welcomed the victory of the real estate magnate, elected following the American presidential election on Tuesday, November 5. The 47^e President of the United States is a leading ally », thus judges the daily L’Opinion. Early Wednesday afternoon, King Mohammed VI sent him a message of congratulations.

In the newspapers and among Moroccan commentators, no one has forgotten the role played in 2020 by Donald Trump in the Western Sahara issue, considered by Rabat as falling under “ territorial integrity » from Morocco. On December 10 of this year, a few weeks before the end of his first term, the tenant of the White House announced on Twitter (now X) that he had “ signed a proclamation recognizing Moroccan sovereignty » in this territory, described as “ not autonomous » by the United Nations.

The same day, during a telephone call between the two heads of state, Mohammed VI thanked Mr. Trump, assuring him of “ his deep gratitude for this historic position “. In return, Morocco noted the resumption of its official relations with Israel.

A month later, the United States ambassador in Rabat went to the town of Dakhla, in Western Sahara – a first for an American diplomat of this rank – to launch “ the official process of opening a consulate » in the company of the Moroccan Minister of Foreign Affairs. But the arrival of Joe Biden at the White House on January 20, 2021, stopped the project in its tracks. Without calling into question the proclamation of its predecessor, the administration of the democratic president never materialized the installation of an American diplomatic representation in Western Sahara. Contacted by The Worldthe State Department indicated in December 2023 that it had “not no announcement to make » about this.

“I hope he finishes what he started”

This shows how much the re-election of Donald Trump, in a dispute whose resolution is the number one objective of Moroccan foreign policy, was expected in the country. “ I hope he will finish what he started, namely opening an American consulate in Dakhla or Laâyoune », testifies Hassan Alaoui, the director of the newspaper diplomatic Moroccowhich says “ relieved » of the result of the American election and convinced that “ Democrats, unlike Republicans, have never firmly supported Morocco in the Sahara [occidental] ».

The consequences of Mr. Trump’s return to the White House, whose unpredictability was one of the dominant traits during his first term, however appear very uncertain for the kingdom, even if it is ” likely that its aversion to multilateralism offers a window for Morocco to reach a solution in Western Sahara along Rabat’s lines », Says Intissar Fakir, director of the North Africa and Sahel program at the American think tank Middle East Institute.

According to her, it is possible that Donald Trump will once again take action “ unorthodox » and transactional which will go beyond the UN framework, the elected president having never stopped criticizing the ineffectiveness of the international organization.

Many observers, however, believe that Morocco will not be a priority for Donald Trump, which would also have been the case if his Democratic rival, Kamala Harris, had been elected. His diplomatic agenda will focus mainly on the war in the Gaza Strip, which he has repeated he wants to put an end to.

His wish to see peace established in the Middle East, which he had made a campaign argument with Arab-American voters, could therefore involve restarting the Abraham Accords process. Negotiated and orchestrated by his son-in-law, Jared Kushner – then senior advisor to the American president – ​​they resulted in 2020 in the normalization of relations between Israel and several Arab countries, including Morocco. If it is put back on track, Rabat could be led to support the resumption of this plan.

A strategic role between the United States and China

Beyond the bilateral relationship, the expected development of relations between Washington and Beijing will also be carefully scrutinized by Morocco. Donald Trump, who intends to reduce American dependence on critical materials from China, essential for the manufacture of electric vehicles, could be led to modify the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), American analysts believe.

If this is the case, the 400 billion dollars (372 billion euros) of spending of this plan, voted under the Biden administration and intended to decarbonize the American economy, would be subject to additional restrictions, which will have consequences on the amount of tax credits for electric vehicles, as well as on the conditions of access to these credits for components manufactured abroad.

However, Morocco is primarily concerned by the IRA, which relies, among other things, on supplies from friendly countries or from those linked by free trade agreements with the United States, as is the case. has been the case in Rabat since 2004. This explains why large Chinese companies, specializing in the manufacturing of electric batteries or cathodes, have announced that they want to invest up to 10 billion euros in the kingdom, in order to maintain their access to American market. In January, the American think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies described this Chinese industrial strategy as an attempt to circumvent the IRA by taking advantage of “ friend-shoring » (“trade between friendly countries”). An approach which could well be undermined in the event of a revision of this plan by Donald Trump.