what is his economic program?

Customs duties, spending, employment, cryptocurrencies… what are the main axes of the new president's economic program and what will its cost be?

Donald Trump therefore became the 47th president of the United States, defeating his Democratic rival Kamala Harris. The former businessman will therefore be able to apply his economic program which is based around strong protectionism.

• Increase in customs duties

Donald Trump proposes to tax 10 to 20% more on the importation of foreign products, with a 60% surcharge on Chinese products or even 200% for certain types of goods.

“Customs duties are Trump’s solution to everything: they replace taxes and reduce the trade deficit,” analyzes Florence Pisani, economist specializing in the United States at Candriam.

“What is emerging is an isolationist America,” summarizes Alexis Karklins-Marchay, deputy managing director of Eight Advisory, on BFM Business this Wednesday.

However, this strategy is perceived by investors as being likely to revive inflation and worsen the massive budget deficit of the United States.

Such a measure would also produce an open trade war with China, while customs duties have already been increased by 100% on electric vehicles, for example.

This measure “could lead to an annual increase of $524 billion in taxes and reduce GDP by 0.8 percentage points, with 684,000 jobs destroyed,” researchers at the Tax Foundation estimated.

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• Relaunch industrial employment

The Republican candidate promised to “steal” industrial jobs abroad thanks to these additional customs duties, even promising to finance a lasting reduction in income taxes through this.

“For years, we have witnessed the theft of our jobs by other countries,” denounced the Republican candidate for the White House during a campaign rally.

“But now we are going to attack their jobs and bring them back to America, where they should be,” he told his supporters, gathered in the American state of Georgia.

To do this, Donald Trump, who placed his presidency (2017-2021) under the sign of “America first”, committed to creating special economic zones on federal land “with very low taxes and regulations.”

Conversely, the former president said that manufacturers would pay “very high” customs duties if they did not manufacture their products in the United States.

“I want German automobile companies to become American,” declared the presidential candidate on November 5.

“We are going to steal other countries' jobs, we are going to steal their factories,” he said.

• Tax cuts

Donald Trump has promised to “end inflation and make America affordable again.” He wants to make income from social security (notably pensions) tax-free and lower corporate tax from 21 to 15%.

Above all, he wants to extend the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), a law passed under his first mandate, which temporarily lowered taxes: it will expire in 2025 and allows corporate taxes to be reduced from 35 to 21%. , and reorganizes downwards the different income tax rates, particularly for the middle classes, the most affected by inflation.

The budgetary constraint posed by the renewal of the TCJA is very significant: it would represent 4,800 billion dollars over ten years if maintained as is.

The former President also promises to tax overtime

• The promise of cheaper energy

Inflation has been at the heart of this presidential campaign, particularly in terms of energy and fuel prices.

Trump promised to halve prices by increasing local gas and oil production.

“I will quickly put an end to the great green scam,” he has already promised. “We are going to drill (for oil) like crazy,” he announced in order to “lower energy prices very quickly.” He wants to intensify drilling in the Arctic, to increase stocks.

• Strong support for cryptos

Donald Trump has pledged to make the United States “the world capital of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies”.

“Instead of attacking the industries of the future, we will support them, in particular by making the United States the world capital of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies,” declared the former president during a speech on his economic program in New York.

This promise and the victory of the Republican candidate also boosted the price of bitcoin which this Wednesday broke its record at more than 74,000 dollars.

• Change monetary policy

He has never hidden it, the independence of the Federal Reserve dissatisfies Donald Trump, who wants to have a say on monetary policy.

“I have always been successful in my business, I think I have better instincts, in many cases, than the people who are at the Fed or its president,” he declared last August.

He has repeatedly accused the Fed of acting to please the Democrats and questioned the competence of the president of the institution, Jerome Powell, while assuring that he will let him finish his mandate in 2026.

After drastically increasing its rates to curb inflation, the Fed began to lower them, the rise in prices having approached the central banks' 2% objective.

• A very expensive program

Le “Committee for a responsible federal budget”, a non-partisan organization that analyzed the electoral promises of both camps estimates that Donald Trump's program would increase the country's debt by $7.5 trillion, on average.

According to more pessimistic estimates, where expenditures far exceed expected revenues, Trump's program could even cost $15.15 trillion.

Enough to cause the uncontrolled swelling of an already high national debt. In 2024, net US debt reaches 99% of gross domestic product. It is expected to peak at 125% of GDP at the end of 2035.

The organization's report deplores “that no candidate in the running has put in place a program to tackle the debt burden.” According to the report, Donald Trump's program would propel the debt to 142% of GDP.