The bitcoin curve followed Donald Trump's rise in the polls in recent days, until his election this Wednesday, November 6. The star token has exceeded the $75,000 mark for the very first time. After surpassing its last absolute peak dating back to last March ($73,797.98), the first digital currency by capitalization climbed to $75,005 at 5:08 a.m. (Paris time), an increase of some 8%. It then caught its breath and was trading at $74,725 around 5:30 a.m. (in Paris).
« Bitcoin is one of the main assets at the heart of trading on the evening of the American election in my opinion: it is relatively liquid [facile à vendre] and extremely dependent on the outcome of the vote », Reacted Fredrick Collins, of the VeloData platform, quoted by the Bloomberg agency.
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Ether, another major digital currency, was trading on Wednesday around 6:30 a.m. (in Paris) at $2,599, up 6%. THE ” memecoin », these highly volatile parodic digital currencies, are also experiencing a boost, like the « dogecoin » promoted by Elon Musk, the boss of Tesla or even SpaceX, fervent support of Donald Trump.
« The world capital of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies »
Fredrick Collins considers, moreover, very probable that “the rise in price [du bitcoin] is closely associated with the increased prospects of a Trump victory. Indeed, the price of bitcoin has soared in unison with the dollar in markets riveted to the first results of the American presidential election. Donald Trump notably won states by a margin considered sufficient to predict the outcome of the election. The Republican candidate also won a first major victory by winning the key state of North Carolina, known to be contested and highly coveted by his rival Kamala Harris.
« The price of bitcoin closely follows Trump's position in the polls because for investors, a Republican victory would lead to an increase in demand for the digital currency “, noted before the election Russ Mould, analyst at AJ Bell.
US election: Trump ahead in decisive states
The former president pledged during the campaign to make the United States “ the world capital of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies », by imposing an extremely relaxed regulatory framework. By posing as the champion of cryptocurrencies, the businessman takes the opposite view of the Biden government, considered to be in favor of strict regulation of the sector, even if Democrat Kamala Harris tried to give pledges to reassure holders of cryptocurrencies.
Trump has his own platform dedicated to digital currencies
A sign of his enthusiasm, Donald announced with great fanfare the creation of his own platform dedicated to digital currencies: called World Liberty Financial, the latter finally saw a launch in October without much fanfare. It offers services based on so-called decentralized finance, a mechanism which allows you to no longer go through an intermediary such as a bank for your transactions.
The « return to power [de Trump] would likely emphasize deregulation, tax incentives, and economic policies favorable to alternative investments, such as bitcoin », Estimates Nigel Green, at deVere.
The analyst also notes that the Republican's previous mandate “was marked by significant corporate tax cuts, which injected additional liquidity into the markets, thereby encouraging investment in high-growth assets.”
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“His administration could reverse some regulatory tightening measures from the Biden era and create initiatives such as a + strategic national bitcoin stockpile +”promoting investment and innovation, adds John Plassard, analyst at Mirabaud.
Investment product
At the start of the year, the price of bitcoin was driven by anticipation of the “halving”, a technical event which reduces the supply of new bitcoins approximately every four years. It consists of halving the bitcoin reward granted to “miners”, users who contribute to the operation of the digital token by providing their computing power.
The digital asset also owes its rise to the debut of a new investment product on the American market, an index fund (ETF) indexed to bitcoin, which allows investors to benefit from fluctuations in the price of this cryptocurrency without owning it. directly. Since their launch on January 11 in the United States, the twelve bitcoin-backed ETF funds have accumulated the equivalent of approximately $68.51 billion, or approximately 5% of the bitcoins in circulation, according to the SoSoValue site.
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The dollar soars, anticipating the American budgetary impact
Around 6 a.m. (in Paris), the greenback climbed 1.62% against the Japanese currency, to 154.07 yen per dollar and appreciated by 1.76% against the common European currency, to 0. 9309 euros for one dollar. While a feverish wait begins in the United States regarding the outcome of a very close election, the foreign exchange market reacted vigorously to the announcements of the first American states won by former Republican President Donald Trump.
The American election is fueling a roller coaster in trade: the dollar had fallen significantly the day before after the publication of better polls for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, before experiencing a sudden turnaround in the first polls after the start of the vote.
Economists and investors expect that if successful, Donald Trump will put in place new customs barriers, reduce taxes and deregulate the economy – enough to cause a widening of the public deficit, then a rise in bond rates and consequently a rise in the dollar. The markets “will adjust on Wednesday as new information becomes available”, insist MUFG analysts. They believe that “the dollar could strengthen by around 7 to 8% compared to the base scenario if Kamala Harris wins.”
(With AFP)
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