It had dominated the last weeks of the electoral campaign and it grew on Wednesday November 6 as the results of the previous day's election were announced. The “Trump Trade”, these investment choices based on the hypothesis of a return of the former Republican president to the White House, is the other winner of the elections.
The billionaire's announced victory and the prospect of seeing a new Trump administration implement a program combining tax cuts and deregulation measures thus benefit American stocks, while that of an increase in customs duties and a deepening of the budget deficit fuels the rise in yields on Treasury bills and the dollar.
On the equity side, the American S&P 500 index was heading towards an increase of around 1% at the opening, and the Russell 2000, which brings together American small and mid-caps, towards a jump of more than 2%. 'after futures trading. THE small caps are in fact the most likely to benefit from the reduction in corporate taxes promised by the Republican candidate.
“Stock market euphoria”
For its part, the Tokyo Stock Exchange, boosted by the fall of the yen against the greenback, which favors Japanese exporters, ended up 2.5%. And the European markets also started the day in the green: in Paris, the CAC 40 index gained 1.75% at the start of the session and the London and Frankfurt stock exchanges gained 0.9% and 0 respectively. 8%.
“European markets are driven by American stock market euphoria”, summarizes Mabrouk Chetouane, head of market strategy at Natixis IM. Nothing to do, therefore, with the reactions to the first election of Mr. Trump, in 2016, going against all the polls and the positions taken by investors before the elections, and which had caused stocks to plunge in Asia and in Europe, before Wall Street opened higher, quickly restoring calm.
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This time, the speed of the outcome and the apparent scale of Mr. Trump's victory, supplemented by the prospect of a Republican majority in the Senate, immediately benefited all stock markets. Starting, logically, with the American markets.
“Trump will do everything to favor the United States, at the expense of others, that’s his identity”summarizes Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier: “US stocks are therefore very well placed. For European stocks, it will depend on the majority in the House of Representatives, which could constrain this Trump identity. »
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