The Electoral College may not be an ideal system for determining the president, but it’s the one we have. The electors representing most states have long been penciled in for Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, which means the election is expected to come down to the handful of key swing states: Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada.
Harris and Trump have been spending the vast majority of their resources in these seven battlegrounds. Trump lost all of them but North Carolina in 2020, but the margins were razor-thin and it looks like the results are going to be just as close this year.
Many believed Iowa could be in contention, as well, after vaunted pollster Ann Selzer of the Des Moines Register released a pre-election survey showing Harris winning the state by three percentage points. This didn’t turn out to be the case, with the Associated Press calling the state and its six Electoral College votes for Trump relatively early on Tuesday.
Here’s a guide to where things stand in the states that will decide America’s next president:
GEORGIA
Electoral Votes: 16
Status: Too early to tell, but Trump moved out to an early lead in the state by improving on his results there in 2020. Earlier on Tuesday, multiple polling places in Democratic-leaning districts were hit with bomb threats. The FBI said many of the threats “appear to originate from Russian email domains.”
Biden flipping Georgia blue may have been the biggest surprise of the 2020 election, but it’s going to be tough for Democrats to hold onto the state. It’s the one battleground state where Republicans have a governing trifecta, and Trump’s MAGA allies are doing everything they can to ensure a red result this time around. Still, Harris’ team is going hard in the state, including with a high-profile, home-stretch rally in Atlanta featuring Obama and Bruce Springsteen.
NORTH CAROLINA
Electoral Votes: 16
Status: The Associated Press called North Carolina for Trump at 11:18 p.m. EST.
North Carolina represents an unlikely Southern battleground considering Trump won there relatively comfortably in both 2016 and 2020, but it could very much go either way in 2024. Harris and Trump have both spent plenty of time there, although Trump forgot where he was during his final rally in the state on Sunday. One complicating factor for the former president is Mark Robinson, the Republican gubernatorial candidate who is getting crushed in the polls following revelations that he made a series of disturbingly bigoted comments on a porn forum.
PENNSYLVANIA
Electoral Votes: 19
Status: Too early to tell.
Pennsylvania has been widely regarded as the key to the election. Trump won the Keystone State in 2016, Joe Biden narrowly won here in 2020, and the path to the presidency this year is extremely narrow for both candidates unless they secure the state’s 19 Electoral College votes.
Harris and Trump have both spent a ton of time and money in the Keystone State, which has hosted some of the race’s most significant moments. Trump was shot in the ear during a rally in Butler in July. He returned to the site of the assassination attempt in October, bringing newly minted surrogate Elon Musk with him. The only debate between Harris and Trump took place in Philadelphia, which is also where Harris sat down with Bret Baier on Fox News.
Both campaigns drove home the state’s importance by rallying there the day before the election, with Harris closing out her campaign with a star-studded event in Philly.
MICHIGAN
Electoral Votes: 16
Status: Too early to tell.
Trump won Michigan by three-tenths of a percentage point in 2016, but lost it to Biden by nearly three points in 2020. Polling suggests it’s going to be close this year, but one complicating factor for Harris is the state’s significant Arab-American population and its resistance to the Biden administration’s continued support for Israel’s bombardment of Palestinians in Gaza. The state’s “uncommitted” movement led to 100,000 people withholding their vote for Biden in the Democratic primary, and they’ve since been putting pressure on Harris to break from the president on Gaza. She has yet to do so.
WISCONSIN
Electoral Votes: 10
Status: Too early to tell.
Hillary Clinton infamously neglected Wisconsin during her 2016 campaign, and lost the state to Trump by less than a point. Biden won it by less than a point four years later, and the state could be just as close in 2024. Both parties seem to appreciate its importance, with Republicans holding their convention in Milwaukee, and Harris rallying there with Barack Obama on Sunday.
ARIZONA
Electoral Votes: 11
Status: Too early to tell.
Arizona was one of the most hotly contested states in 2020, and Republicans were outraged when Fox News was the first network to call the state for Biden. The fallout was laborious, with GOP-led recount efforts yielding no proof of fraud, and potentially criminal, with the state charging a host of Trump allies for trying to overturn the state’s results.
NEVADA
Electoral Votes: 6
Status: Too early to tell.
Nevada has long been considered a toss-up, and could be close again this year. Nevada Republicans held a 50,000 vote lead over Nevada Democrats at the conclusion of early voting, which isn’t a great sign for Democrats considering they’re the ones who tend to turn up in droves ahead of Election Day. Nevertheless, state election guru Jon Ralston predicted on Monday that Harris would win the state by a hair.
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