A Trump victory would reveal Germany’s failings

You are reading an excerpt from the weekday newsletter “The Other View”, today by Anna Schiller, editor of NZZ Germany. Subscribe to the newsletter for free. Don’t live in Germany? Benefit here.

If the German government has its way, it is clear who should win the election in the USA: Kamala Harris. «I know her well. She would certainly be a very good president,” said Chancellor Olaf Scholz about the Democratic candidate. In Berlin, however, people make no secret of their antipathy towards Donald Trump. Even when asked, Scholz preferred not to comment on the Republican candidate.

The German government is betting everything on a Harris victory. Apparently she doesn’t have a plan B. That’s risky.

If Trump wins, the German government’s failings will be mercilessly exposed. She should have used Joe Biden’s term in office to become more independent from the USA. Instead, she slept through the last four years.

Scholz has to take on more responsibility

This particularly applies to German defense policy. Germany has neglected the Bundeswehr. Ultimately, one could always rely on the protective power of the USA. But Trump doesn’t think much of NATO. He only has vague plans for Ukraine. He doesn’t say whether he would supply her with weapons or support her financially. Scholz now wants to rearm again and strengthen NATO’s European pillar, for example through the recently concluded defense agreement with Great Britain.

But that won’t be enough if the US under Trump reduces its aid to Ukraine and becomes less involved in NATO. Scholz would then be Europe’s most important man in terms of defense – and would also have to fill this leadership role. However, so far he is not behaving that way. His considerations are always about not provoking Putin. However, Europe cannot afford a waverer at the top in times of war.

The German government also did not take advantage of Biden’s term in office in economic policy. She has no plan for how Germany and Europe should deal with America’s gradual departure from free trade. Biden continued Trump’s punitive tariffs on steel and aluminum. The USA and the EU merely postponed the final agreement on this. And even after the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, a billion-dollar subsidy package for the American economy, the German government did not emerge as a problem solver in the EU.

Germany would then probably bite its teeth against Trump, who sees tariffs as a means of enforcing his will. He cares even less about European sensitivities. The EU is probably already preparing counter tariffs just in case. So you react to protectionism with more protectionism. The consequences would also be devastating for the German economy.

Now, of course, one could say that all the doom and gloom will be invalid if Harris wins. But that is too short-sighted. Harris will continue the USA’s protectionist course like Biden. In the event of further escalation in the Middle East or if China attacks Taiwan, it too could at some point be forced to leave Europe to fend for itself. Even if the democrat wins, Germany would be well advised to finally adjust to the new realities and act accordingly.

Germany must also approach Trump

This also includes accepting that there is a political current in the USA that no longer sees Germany as a partner. Even if Trump’s political career ends, not everyone in the USA will suddenly become convinced transatlanticists again. The German government must also approach these people.

The fact that she is not doing this at the moment is of course also due to Trump himself. During the election campaign, he regularly rails against Germany. However, the German government’s tactic cannot be to confront him in the same rude manner as the Foreign Office recently did on Platform X.

The reaction there was extremely thin-skinned to his statements about the German coal phase-out. “Like it or not,” the ministry wrote, addressed to Trump. The German energy system is fully functional. And in reference to his made-up story about pet-eating migrants in the city of Springfield: “PS: We don’t eat cats and dogs either.”

Other governments, however, are already trying to get on good terms with Trump. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer met with him for two hours at Trump Tower in New York around the end of September. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was shot in 2022, convinced Trump of his ideas while playing golf.

The German government does not have to nominate Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, as Abe did. But the turning point could also mean that someone who you wouldn’t necessarily call a friend will be sitting in the White House again in the future.

One can therefore expect the German government to also strive to maintain good relations with Trump. Ultimately, she finds compromises even with autocrats when she has to. Germany has long courted Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the Chancellery is very interested in maintaining good relations with China and its head of state Xi Jinping. Both are flawless autocrats who don’t care the slightest about human rights. Compared to them, Trump is harmless.

It is all the more incomprehensible that the German government applies double standards here. Making political action dependent on personal sympathy is not in Germany’s interest.