Topline
Former President Donald Trump has been surging on betting sites as more states close their polls, turning around a shrinking lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in betting odds after the first major polls closed, while survey-based prediction models indicated the candidates were locked in a dead heat heading into Election Day.
Voters cast their ballots in Denver on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024.
Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved
Key Facts
Polymarket: Perhaps the most famous election betting player, the blockchain-based site still leaned toward Trump after the first closures, giving him 72% implied odds of victory compared to Harris’ 29% as of about 8:45 p.m. EST.
Kalshi: The New York-based prediction platform favors Trump by a 68% to 32% margin, a major shift from Saturday, when Harris briefly led on the site; unlike Polymarket, Kalshi legally operates in the U.S., as do rival PredictIt and brokerages Robinhood and Interactive Brokers.
PredictIt: The site tilting most strongly toward Harris still favored Trump at just after 8:40 p.m., with PredictIt pricing at 64% to 38% for Trump.
Robinhood: The retail trading giant is the newest major entrant into election betting and gives Trump about a 68% win probability compared to 35% for his Democratic opponent.
Interactive Brokers: The digital brokerage run by billionaire Thomas Peterffy offers election betting via its subsidiary ForecastEx, which prices in around 67% odds for Trump and 35% for Harris.
Betfair and Smarkets: The London-based sites are not open to Americans, but both assign similar chances of a Trump win, with Betfair favoring the Republican by a 68% to 32% margin and Smarkets by a 70% to 30% tilt.
Odds around the time of the first major poll closures at 6 p.m. EST were roughly 60% for Trump and 40% for Harris on high-profile betting platforms.
Big Number
67.7%. That’s the betting market’s aggregated odds for a Trump victory, according to the Election Betting Odds tool, which tracks odds across Betfair, Kalshi, PredictIt, Polymarket and Smarkets.
Contra
Polling data suggest almost Harris and Trump stand on nearly equal footing on Election Day. FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts favor Harris at a 50% to 49% clip, while Silver Bulletin, the model run by statistician and Polymarket advisor Nate Silver, leans toward Harris by a miniscule 50.02% to 49.99% margin. The difference between betting market odds and poll-based prediction models has been a major subject of debate in recent weeks, with some suggesting betting markets are a better predictor as bettors are financially incentivized to wager on the candidate more likely to win and skeptics pointing to the potentially pro-Trump demographic among bettors as an explanation for the skew.
What Do Betting Odds Show For Senate And House Control?
Currently, Democrats have control of the Senate with 51 seats compared to the Republicans’ 49, and Republicans have control of the House. The Election Betting Odds tool, which compiles odds from multiple sites, leans heavily toward Republicans taking control of the Senate from Democrats by a margin of 87% to 13% as of 8:35 p.m. EST. The same site favors Republicans to take control of the House by a 52% to 49% margin.
How Does Election Betting Work?
Sites offer users contracts whose prices are tied to the real-time, market-implied odds of a certain candidate. Each contract pays out $1 if the bettor opted for the winning candidate and $0 if their wager was incorrect. So at the current odds, a contract for Trump would cost about $0.57 and one for Harris roughly $0.44 on Robinhood, with the same binary $0 or $1 return offered for each contract. Election betting sites which operate legally in the U.S. have comparative limits, with Robinhood allowing 5,000 contracts per user and PredictIt $850 per user on each election market.
When Do Election Bets Settle?
It varies by platform. Polymarket’s main market will pay out when the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC News desks all call the election in one candidate’s favor (so potentially as soon as this week), Robinhood will pay winning bettors Jan. 7, the day after Congress certifies results, Kalshi on the day of the Jan. 20 inauguration and PredictIt says it will pay out when “any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled.”
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