Obviously, the candidates only have to win the pivotal states to win. But easier said than done. Especially since you don’t necessarily have to win them all. Thus, with her 226 votes acquired or in favor, Kamala Harris only needs 44 additional votes. And she could get away with winning only three of the seven swing states, those that belong to the “rust belt”, since they were the heart of the American manufacturing industry: Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania . These are the three swing states located in the northern United States on our map.
As the BBC reminds us, these states always voted Democratic since 1992 until the arrival of Donald Trump in 2016. And that year, Donald Trump won them all. Joe Biden regained control of these three swing states in 2020. By winning these swing states, Kamala Harris would win 44 electors in addition to the 226 votes in favor or acquired: she would then be elected president of the United States.
By ricochet, Donald Trump must win at least one of three to stay in the race. And for the Republican, winning these three states would not be enough since the addition of 44 and 219 brings him to 263, below the 270 votes needed.
The Republican candidate should then turn to the “sun belt”, located further south: Nevada (6), Arizona (11), North Carolina (16) and Georgia (16). Here again, Kamala Harris could win the election by winning in these four statesbut the scenario seems improbable: Democrats have never won these four states in the same election. These states are traditionally more favorable to the Republicans: Nixon, Reagan, Bush father and son all built their victories there.
The particularity of these four swing states is that they are home to a large Latino or black population. The Democrats assumed that these communities were theirs automatically (Joe Biden won 92% of the votes of the African-American community in 2020), but Donald Trump surprised more than one by achieving very good scores in these communities during the last two elections.
Problem for Donald Trump: if he wins these four “sun belt” states, it would still not be enough to reach 270 voteshe should still win one of the three key states located further north (Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania).
And to simplify anything, let’s return to two States where the “winner takes all” system does not apply:
- Nebraska which allocates 5 electors divided into four electoral colleges: the state itself (2 electors) + three “districts” (1 elector per district). If the state and Districts 1 and 3 are considered for Donald Trump, District 2 is favorable to Kamala Harris and could offer her an additional major voter.
- Maine allocates 4 electors into three electoral colleges: the state itself (2 electors) + two “districts” (1 elector per district). The state is favorable to Kamala Harris, district 2 is hers, but district 1 would be favorable to Donald Trump and could bring him an additional major voter.
All of this data makes this election one of the most unpredictable in American history.
If polls underestimated the Trump vote as in 2016 or 2020, the former president could win all the swing states and even one or two other states considered favorable to Kamala Harris, BBC analysts write. Conversely, if participation is greater than announced by pollsters, Kamala Harris could become the first female president of the United States.
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