Who’s Leading the Battle—Trump or Harris?

Tuesday 05th November 2024 06:40 PM

Topline

The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is effectively a tossup as of Election Day, with pre-election surveys in all seven swing states showing single-digit margins—and crucial Pennsylvania is virtually tied.

Kamala Harris shakes hands with Donald Trump during a presidential debate in Philadelphia on … [+] September 10.

AFP via Getty Images

Key Facts

Nevada: This one’s also a tossup—Trump is up by 0.3 points in the FiveThirtyEight average, but the Times/Siena poll shows Harris leading 49%-46% and YouGov has Harris up 48%-47%, while Emerson shows a tie at 48%.

Georgia: It’s a razor-thin Trump edge—he has a 0.7-point lead in FiveThirtyEight’s average, and he leads 50%-49% in Emerson’s polling, 50%-48% in the Morning Consult survey and 48%-46% in YouGov’s poll, but Harris is ahead 48%-47% according to the Times/Siena poll.

North Carolina: Another narrow Trump advantage—he leads by 0.9 points in FiveThirtyEight’s data, and is ahead 49%-48% according to Emerson, 49%-47% according to Morning Consult and 48%-47% per YouGov, though Harris leads 48%-46% in the Times/Siena survey.

Michigan: It’s a margin-of-error Harris edge—she leads by one point in FiveThirtyEight’s data, 50%-48% in Emerson’s polling, 49%-48% in Morning Consult’s survey and 47%-45% according to YouGov, but they’re tied at 47% in the New York Times/Siena survey.

Wisconsin: Harris has a slight advantage—she’s up by 1.1 points per FiveThirtyEight, and she leads Trump 48%-45% according to YouGov and 49%-47% per Times/Siena, but they’re tied at 49% in Emerson’s polling, and Morning Consult has a roughly one-point Trump lead.

Arizona: It’s the biggest lead of any swing state and still extremely close—Trump is up 2.2 points in FiveThirtyEight average, and he leads 49%-45% according to Times/Siena, 50%-48% per Emerson and 48%-47% according to YouGov, though Morning Consult found a tie at 48%.

When Do Polls Close In The Swing States?

The first swing state to finish up voting will be Georgia at 7 p.m. EST, followed by North Carolina at 7:30 p.m., and Pennsylvania and much of Michigan at 8 p.m. Voting will conclude at 9 p.m. EST in Wisconsin, the rest of Michigan and Arizona, while Nevada closes out the swing states at 10 p.m. Counting ballots and releasing results could take awhile, though—Georgia and North Carolina should start publishing tallies quickly, while Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania may take longer. Check here for an hour-by-hour primer.

Big Number

1.2 points. That’s Harris’ lead in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average.

Who’s Favored To Win The Election?

It’s essentially a tossup. FiveThirtyEight gives Harris a 50% chance of winning and Trump a 49% chance, while statistician Nate Silver put Harris’ odds at 50% and Trump’s at 49.6%. If the polling averages above are right on the money in all seven swing states, Harris will eke out a narrow electoral victory—but the polls could easily be off, and even a small error in either direction could lead to a Trump or Harris landslide.

Is Iowa A Swing State?

Probably not—but a new poll out Saturday has raised some people’s eyebrows. Renowned pollster J. Ann Selzer found Harris leading Trump 47%-44%, a shocking result given Selzer’s sterling reputation and Iowa’s status as a red state. Most other polls of Iowa show Trump with a significant lead. It’s not clear whether the poll’s findings—which suggested women, independents and older voters have swung sharply against Trump—will be replicated in other swing states like neighboring Wisconsin.

Key Background

Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his debate performance—shifting Democrats’ fortunes dramatically. Prior to the shift, polls consistently found Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election.