Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin: this is where the American presidential election is being played out this Tuesday, November 5. These are the swing states, the pivotal states, which can swing to one side or the other at the end of the election and thus determine the identity of the winner. Unlike others, like staunchly Democratic California or staunchly Republican Utah, they regularly change hands in presidential elections, and the polls there are extremely close. No wonder, therefore, that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump focused most of their campaign efforts there.
Polling stations in swing states close starting at 1 a.m. Wednesday, starting with those in Georgia. States will communicate partial results shortly after the close of voting, but these will only determine the winner if the gap between the two candidates is sufficiently large.
Arizona (11 electors, polling stations close at 3 a.m.). For a long time, this State of Sun Belt was considered a Republican stronghold. But Joe Biden won in 2020 an unprecedented victory for a Democrat since 1948 – with the exception of Bill Clinton in 1996. The transition to swing state status results from the demographic transformation of this state bordering Mexico, whose population has multiplied by seven in sixty years. Furthermore, as in nine other states, Arizona is also voting this Tuesday on a referendum proposal aimed at protecting the right to abortion.
North Carolina (16 electors, polling stations close at 1:30 a.m.). Donald Trump won this state in 2016 and 2020, and is on course to do it again, according to polls. But the entry into the running of Kamala Harris has completely reshuffled the cards. North Carolina is a traditionally difficult state for Democrats, who have won there only once since 1980 (with Barack Obama in 2008). Especially since the Republicans are favored by the electoral map, that the Grand Old Party has carefully redistributed for its own benefit for decades.
Georgia (16 voters, polling stations close at 1 a.m.). In 2020, it took a month and no less than three recounts for the state to finally fall into Joe Biden's hands, by less than 12,000 votes. A victory contested by Donald Trump, prosecuted for having attempted to overturn the result in a fraudulent manner, but remarkable in a territory which had not supported a Democrat for the presidency for thirty years. The shift is due to the demographic evolution of Georgia, and in particular of its capital Atlanta, and the growing share of the African-American community.
Michigan (15 voters, most polling stations close at 2 a.m.). This industrial Midwestern state was once part of the Blue Wallthese 18 states which systematically voted Democratic in the presidential elections between 1992 and 2012… before Donald Trump narrowly won against Hillary Clinton in 2016, drawing on the anger of the working world of the Rust Belt. In 2020, Joe Biden managed to bring Michigan back into the Democratic fold. But Kamala Harris is threatened in this state, which has the largest proportion of Arab Americans in the country, by the protests of part of the population against the support provided to Israel by the administration of Joe Biden.
Nevada (6 electors, polling stations close at 4 a.m.). This southwestern state has voted Democratic in the last four presidential elections, but polls indicate a possible swing in favor of the Republican Party. The election will be played out above all on the economic front: the post-Covid recovery there has been slower than elsewhere, and the state records one of the highest unemployment rates in the country. The Latino vote, which today represents 20% of the Nevada electorate, will also be decisive.
Pennsylvania (19 electors, polling stations close at 2 a.m.). Of all the swing states, it is the one which brings its winner the most voters. It is the most courted state in the election, the one to which Kamala Harris and Donald Trump visited multiple times during the campaign and where they held their only debate, in Philadelphia, in September. Pennsylvania was won by Joe Biden in 2020, but by Donald Trump in 2016, and by the Democrats in previous elections. The polls, this time, place the two candidates in a situation of almost perfect equality.
Wisconsin (10 electors, polling stations close at 3 a.m.). In 2016, Donald Trump was the first Republican to conquer this Blue Wall state in thirty-two years. He notably obtained the support of white voters in rural counties. Four years later, Wisconsin was back in the Democratic ranks, buoyed by the vote of the suburbs and women. Symbol of the importance of the state in the campaign: it was in the largest city in Wisconsin, Milwaukee, that the Republican Party convention was held in April.
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