Judicial offensives
If in 2021, the nightmare of January 6 after the assault on the Capitol remains in everyone's minds, this time, the Trumpist camp could act in the form of several small assaults. In the wake of his defeat in 2020, Trump filed more than 50 complaints to contest the results. For the election of this November 5, the American courts have been assailed for weeks with appeals largely doomed to failure on the electoral rules for the presidential vote, auguring a fierce contest if the results prove to be as close as expected .
These legal actions concern questions as diverse as the admissibility of ballots sent by mail, those of civilians or military personnel abroad, late removal from the electoral rolls or even the certification of results by electoral agents. “Five days before the vote, there [avait] already a record number of 201 electoral cases in progress in 40 states,” indicates Marc Elias to AFP, lawyer specializing in electoral disputes on behalf of the Democrats. Obviously, the seven pivotal states are particularly scrutinized.
“Prepare the ground”
A mobilization that has been prepared for a long time, with more strategic and more organized efforts. Between 2020 and August 2024, the Republican camp would have spent nearly 28 million dollars to carry out this legal offensive, according to the Wall Street Journal. In total, Republicans are reportedly involved in more than 120 lawsuits in 26 states challenging election processes.
The Republican camp has no illusions about the chances of success of these legal actions nor about their real importance, but they are part of a deliberate strategy, according to experts. “Donald Trump uses litigation to give a basis for grievances in order to be able to pose as a victim when he loses on a regular basis. He will lie about the results,” says Marc Elias. These appeals “aim to prepare the ground for then declaring that the election was stolen,” David Becker, founder of the Center for Election Innovation and Research, also told AFP.
Lawyers and false list of electors
The Trump camp also pledged to send thousands of people, including lawyers and volunteers, to monitor the vote count in key states. Officials describe the plan as the “largest and most monumental election integrity program in the nation's history,” CNN reports. According to the Wall Street Journal, this program is also supported by a network of billionaires close to the conservative party who have donated more than 140 million dollars to around fifty organizations.
Donald Trump also took advantage of isolated irregularities noted by the authorities to assert that “cheating” was already underway. The Republican candidate systematically refused to commit to once again recognizing the result of the election. He denounced “cheating” on “a scale never seen before” in Pennsylvania, one of the seven swing states, saying that “not pretty things at all” were happening in that state. In response, law enforcement officials in a Pennsylvania county announced an investigation into a batch of 2,500 voter registration applications that included inaccurate identity information.
Conspiracy and threats
More than a third of Americans have doubts about the integrity of the electoral system, according to opinion polls. This distrust particularly affects Republican voters. Distrust was not born with Donald Trump. After losing in 2016, Hillary Clinton was already questioning the legitimacy of her opponent, citing possible Russian manipulation. But Trump's refusal to concede defeat in 2020 has pushed the United States into another era.
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