INFOGRAPHICS – As the world waits to discover the identity of the winner of the presidential election, polls provide a glimpse of the final results. But they are not always reliable. In 2020 and 2016, aggregators notably underestimated the Trumpist vote.
The denouement soon comes to an end. In a few hours, the identity of the winner of the American presidential election will be known. While awaiting the outcome of the vote, the polls provide a glimpse of the final results. But they are not always reliable. In 2016 and 2020 the pollsters had in fact failed to measure the Trumpist groundswell, by overestimating the “blue wave”.
This year, the polls are more cautious and announce more than close results, with a slight lead for Kamala Harris nationally, one point apart from her Republican rival. Donald Trump is in the lead in the swing states, these key states whose vote varies from one election to another, and which can change everything. The gap with the vice-president, however, remains very small.
Through the analysis of estimates from two different poll aggregators – Real Clear Politics and Fivethirtyeight – Le Figaro deciphers the polls…
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