It’s certainly been a long and winding journey, but Election Day 2024 is finally here!
This year’s presidential contest started as a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, with the two matching up closely in the polls — and in their historic levels of unpopularity. The summer saw no shortage of drama and upheaval as a disastrous debate performance by Biden brought calls for him to drop out of the race to a fever pitch. Shortly after, Republicans held their convention and rallied around Trump in the face of an assassination attempt By the time the Democratic convention rolled around, Biden had bowed out, and the race had reset itself with Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic standard-bearer.
One place where the race remained remarkably stable, though, was in the polls, which fluctuated by just a few percentage points over the span of several months and two different campaigns. Heading into today, the contest between Trump and Harris is a virtual toss-up, and the polls are close enough that the race could very well be decided by a single state or even result in an Electoral College tie. Of course, we’re also a normal polling error away from a blowout for either candidate. And after two consecutive presidential elections in which polls underestimated Trump’s support, a question on every election watcher’s mind is whether the same will be true this year.
Looking downballot, the outcome is similarly uncertain in the U.S. House of Representatives, where Republicans are hoping to defend their narrow majority after a tumultuous couple years of their own. (Raise your hand if you googled “who is Mike Johnson” around this time last year.) On the other hand, Republicans are a clear favorite in the Senate in light of a map stacked against vulnerable Democrats.
Plus, hundreds of other elections will be decided today too — among them, 11 governor’s offices are up for grabs, and a wide slate of ballot measures could reshape the landscape for abortion rights, how Americans vote, and more.
As always, we’re here to serve as your trusty guides throughout the day (and night, and week), with info on what to look out for and how to make sense of the results as they come in. Thanks for joining us!
Swiss
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